Take Fired-Up Warriors & 'Over' As Our Free NBA Pick vs. Blazers

Kevin Stott

Friday, February 19, 2016 1:01 PM GMT

Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and the defending NBA champion Golden State Warriors head north to face Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers. Who will be our NBA pick tonight?

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Final Score Prediction: Warriors 121  Blazers 101
NBA Picks: Warriors -8½ & Over 221
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers
The Golden State Warriors (48-4 SU, 31-20-1 ATS) take their record-setting pace to the Moda Center in Portland on Friday night to face Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers (27-27 SU, 30-24-0 ATS) in a Western Conference date and big game for the hosts. This will be the second of four meetings between the Pacific Coast teams teams this season, with the Warriors winning the first meeting here at the Rose Garden, 128-108 (GSW -9½, 213½, Over) as Draymond Green had 13 rebounds and 10 assists in the victory as Golden State got out to a 34-2 record at the time (Jan. 8). NBA odds makers have opened the Warriors as 9-point favorites (Bookmaker) here with the game’s Total (Points) set at 220 (Bookmaker). The Money Line (Winner) odds see Golden State priced at -550 (Paddy Power) with host Portland lined at +400 on the takeback.

 

Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors (31-20-1 ATS, 18-9-1 ATS Road) and Head Coach Steve Kerr almost had the best 1st Half of a season in NBA history—the 1995/96 Chicago Bulls were 38-3 through 41 games—but you can bet your bottom dollar that Golden State (+140 to win NBA Championship, Betway) isn’t going to lose the 7 games 2nd Half games Michael Jordan and Steve Kerr’s team did in the 2nd Half. With a starting 5 that includes three All-Stars (and two of the best shooters in NBA history) in PG Stephen Curry (29.8 ppg), SG Klay Thompson (21.3 ppg) and PF Draymond Green (14.9 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 7.2 apg) along with much-improved SF Harrison Barnes and C Andrew Bogut. And with players like Andre Iguodala, Brandon Rush, Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa and reserve C Festus Ezeli coming off the Warriors Bench, it’s no wonder this team is sitting at an eye-popping 48-4 and that’s understandable when your All-Star Energizer Bunny Power Forward (Green) leads the team in Assists (7.2 apg). The Harlem Globetrotters ain’t got nothin’ on this Warriors bunch. On the Healthwatch for Western Conference leaders Golden State (115.5 AF-103.0 AA), the aforementioned Ezeli (Knee), who is out until late March and SF James Michael McAdoo (Toe) who’s listed as Questionable.

 

Portland Trail Blazers
The Portland Trail Blazers (30-24 ATS Record, 15-12 ATS Home) and Head Coach Terry Stotts have really improved lately and have moved up to 7th place and a Playoff position in the competitive Western Conference and to 27-27 as we begin the 2nd Half of the NBA Regular Season, and are a team to watch in the West although making and winning a 1st Round Playoff series would be a major story (and that’s not going to happen). But despite losing PF LaMarcus Aldridge (San Antonio Spurs) and key cog G Wes Matthews (Dallas Mavericks) to Free Agency over the Summer and maybe no NBA team could afford to lose a player, outside maybe Anthony Davis on the New Orleans Pelicans, than these Trail Blazers (102.5 AF-101.9 AA) could with stud PG Damian Lillard (24.3 ppg, 7.3 apg) who has put this team on his back and carried it to 27-27. Now what? is the big question. Hope that superman Lillard can keep it up and that guys like C Mason Plumlee (9.5 ppg, 7.6 rpg), PFs Noah Vonleh (Injured) and Meyers Leonard (8.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg), SF Al-Farouq El-Aminu (10.4 ppg, 6.4 rpg) and starting SG CJ McCollum (20.7 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.6 apg) keep contributing and improving as young NBA players. Portland (500/1 to win NBA Championship, William Hill) only has PF Vonleh (Ankle) with Injury issues and he is currently (Tuesday) listed as Questionable for this game.

 

Series Trends, Logical Reasoning and Reasonable and Hopefully Profitable Picks
When these two teams met here at the Moda Center back on Jan. 8, Golden State rolled to a 128-108 victory (GSW -9½, 213½, Over) and covered the Point Spread by 11½ points and logic says this game looks, plays and ends up a lot like that first meeting in Oregon with a potentially very similar Final Scoreline. The Warriors have owned this series of late, going a sparkling 8-2 ATS the L10 as well as 8-2 SU in those 10 meetings. Golden State has also W5 straight ATS against the Blazers, and four of those were when Aldridge and Matthews were still on the Portland Roster. The Over is also 7-3 ATS—the last 3 have all gone Over the closing Total—in those last 10 games and this is a simple, cookie-cutter handicap with strong feelings about taking the rolling Warriors (48-4) in this scheduling spot. Nobody desiring to break the Bulls and Michael Jordan’s NBA Season Win Total Record will want to lose a game to start the 2nd Half. Golden State (20-9-1 ATS L30 Road Games) has scored 128, 116 and 122 in beating—and covering against the Blazers the last 3 times with Portland scoring over 100 points. Even with Portland 7-3 ATS the L10 against the Pacific Northwest and the Under 7-3 ATS in the Blazers L10 Friday games, all of this screams to take the Road Warriors and the Over and tell that crazy Mad Max Fury Road Guitar Guy to start playing those psychotic riffs. And if you needed some Trends to try to sell you on the Over: The Over is 17-7 ATS the L24 Golden State games on the Road and the Over is 12-3 ATS the L15 game vs. the Pacific Northwest, including that Over in the first meeting here in early January. He who controls the pace shall dictate this game and few have been able to slow Curry, Thompson and Green’s roll this season ... and now Head Coach Kerr is healthy and back and happily sitting next to an Assistant Coach (Luke Walton) who did a phenomenal job in Kerr’s stead (Kerr was out with serious Back issues). There are few holes in this confident Maserati of a team which is part Globetrotters, part 3-Point Robots and still plays (great) D despite being able to pop 50 on you in the 1st Quarter. 

Even though Stotts has the Trail Blazers 8-2 SU over their L10, catching a team like this particular one which can pop from the Freeway on the drive into the stadium and with so much Rest (All-Star Break) and on an 11-game Winning Streak is just a Bad Scheduling Spot and bad luck for rolling Portland (15-12 ATS at Home). So sorry. At least you only have to play Golden State (29-2 SU vs. Western Conference) two more times at their crib, Terry. And VooDoo Donuts is still open. Just cave to the Chocolate and Sugar, brother Stotts. It’s OK. I see a 20-point blowout with Globetrotter-like scoring here. Again. Is your team’s PF averaging 7.2 assists per game and driving the team bus to the Hotel and then making Ham and Cheese Omelettes for the entire team? I thought not. What can Green do for you? And so far, one NBA championship and counting. Add Warriors & Over as the NBA pick tonight.