Swinger’s By The Numbers NBA Picks For Light Thursday Schedule

timberwolves pacers

Thursday, January 26, 2017 2:05 PM GMT

By The Numbers is a daily NBA column featuring three top selections according to historical trends and game-time matchups. Let’s review the top picks for Thursday.

Pacers (22-22 SU, 18-26 ATS) At Timberwolves (17-28 SU, 20-25 ATS)
  • Minnesota is 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
  • Minnesota is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
  • Minnesota is 19-41-1 ATS in their last 61 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Indiana is 18-6 ATS in their last 24 games playing on two days rest.
  • Indiana is 2-0 ATS against the Timberwolves over the course of the last three seasons.

The Pacers have vastly underperformed this season, but there is a market correction ready to commence. The NBA odds makers originally dealt the T'Wolves as 5-point home chalk but then the sharps saw this inflated number and buried the Pacers. Even at a more modest 3-point head start (Pinnacle hanging the only 3½ among the major online sportsbooks), the .500 Pacers are a value in your NBA picks this evening over a sub-.500 team in Minnesota.

NBA Free Pick: Pacers -3.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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 Mavericks (16-29 SU, 23-22 ATS) At Thunder (27-19 SU, 25-20-1 ATS)
  • OKC is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • OKC is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
  • OKC is 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.
  • OKC is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
  • OKC is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • OKC is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Dallas is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games.
  • Dallas is 0-3 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points.
  • Dallas is 1-5 ATS vs. OKC over their last six meetings.

The Thunder have owned the Mavs over the last few years, and though this is the first meeting of the season between the two Western Conference rivals it should be more of the same. Both teams played Wednesday night with straight-up wins and covers, but OKC gets the advantage of coming home while the Mavs hit the road with a meeting against the Spurs looming over the weekend.

NBA Free Pick: Thunder -7Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Suns (15-30 SU, 24-20-1 ATS) At Nuggets (19-25 SU, 23-20-1 ATS)
  • Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.
  • Denver is 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a favorite.
  • Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Denver is 6-1 ATS in their last seven after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Phoenix is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Thursday games.
  • Phoenix is 17-36 ATS in their last 53 games following a ATS win.

The Nuggets have been a veritable ATM at the betting windows lately, covering in six of their last seven contests -- including a convincing 103-93 victory over the Jazz on Tuesday night. In addition, the Nuggets have dominated the Suns in winning and covering their last four, including both meetings this season.

NBA Free Pick: Nuggets -6Best Line Offered: BookMaker

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