Swinger’s By the Numbers NBA Picks: Home Cookin' Specials

Portland Blazers

Swinging Johnson

Saturday, March 25, 2017 5:44 PM GMT

By the Numbers is a daily NBA column featuring Swinger’s top selections according to historical trends and game time matchups. Let’s review the top picks for Saturday’s slate and cash in our NBA picks.

Raptors (43-29 SU, 39-32-1 ATS) vs. Mavericks (31-40 SU, 39-32 ATS)

* Dallas is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.

* Dallas is 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.

* Dallas is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

* Dallas is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.

* Toronto is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win.

* Toronto is 1-5 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.

* Toronto is  3-7 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Toronto is 3-6 ATS after allowing 90 points or less.

Although the Raptors have been on a bit of a roll, winning four straight and covering the NBA odds in three of those victories, they are now tasked with defeating a Mavericks team that has loved the home cookin' all season long. Consider that in games played at the American Airlines Center, the Mavs have covered in 23 of 37 opportunities which gives them over a 62 percent cover rate. In addition, Dallas is coming off a sweet 98-96 win over the Clippers as 5 ½ point home dogs. While the Raptors have been traveling, the Mavs have been at home relaxing so let's include Dallas in our NBA picks tonight.

NBA Pick: Mavericks -1Best Line Offered: at Betmania

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Timberwolves (28-43 SU, 32-39 ATS) vs. Trail Blazers (33-38 SU, 31-40 ATS)

* Portland is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Saturday games.

* Portland is Trail Blazers are 4-1 ATS in their last five when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Portland is 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

* Portland is 8-4 ATS in the month of March.

* Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up loss.

* Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

* Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.

* Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in their last five after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

It's tough enough to bet on a team when they're bad but when that lousy team is in the midst of playing even lousier basketball than usual, well then it's time to fade that team. Such is the case with the Minnesota Timberwolves, owners of a 1-5 straight up and ATS mark over the course of their last six games. Conversely, the Trail Blazers have won and covered the spread in four of their last five. it's a case of two teams going in opposite directions, which is why we are backing the home chalk in Portland on Saturday night.

Free NBA Pick: Trail Blazers -7Best Line Offered: at Skybook

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