Swinger’s by the Numbers NBA Picks for Thursday, March 9

blazers 76ers

Thursday, March 9, 2017 4:38 PM GMT

By The Numbers is a daily NBA column featuring Swinger’s top selections according to historical trends and game-time matchups. Let’s review the top picks for Thursday.

Cavaliers (42-20 SU, 28-32-2 ATS) at Pistons (31-33 SU, 31-33 ATS)

  • Detroit is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Thursday games.
  • Detroit is 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Detroit is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
  • Detroit is  0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on zero day's rest.
  • Cleveland is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
  • Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
  • Cleveland is  4-1-1 ATS in their last six games playing on two day's rest.
  • Cleveland is 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite of 0.5-5.0.

Not only do the numbers skew towards a Cleveland cover, but there are a few other things in play here. The Cavs are rebounding off an unlikely 106-98 loss at the hands of the mercurial Miami Heat in which the NBA odds had the Cavs as 10-point home chalk. Cleveland has had two days to think about that, while the Pistons are coming off a 115-98 blowout road loss to the Pacers just last night. As stated above, the Pistons are 0-6 ATS when playing the second leg of back-to-back games, and unfortunately for them they have the defending world champions looking to get back on track and atone for a 106-90 setback to the Pistons the last time they visited the Motor City.

NBA Free Pick: Cavs -5

Best Line Offered: BookMaker

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3068700, "sportsbooksIds":[93,19,1389,274,1252], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

76ers (23-40 SU, 38-24-1 ATS) at Trail Blazers (27-35 SU, 26-36 ATS)

  • Portland is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
  • Portland is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.
  • Portland is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
  • Portland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Philadelphia is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Philadelphia is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog.

I understand why the squares will be lining up to lay the lumber and include Portland in their NBA picks tonight. In their minds, they see a Blazers team that has won and covered its last three, while the Sixers are without their big man in the middle, Jahlil Okafor, and have lost their last two by double digits. I get it. But let's not get carried away with a Trail Blazers side that is 26-36 ATS and eight games below .500 straight up. The Sixers have covered four out of their last five meetings with Portland, and tonight they will make it five out of six.

NBA Free Pick: 76ers +10

Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3068709, "sportsbooksIds":[19,1096,93,169,1275], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]