Sweet Spots Of The Week: Top NBA Picks For January 8-12

free picks NBA

Jay Pryce

Sunday, January 7, 2018 2:14 PM UTC

Sunday, Jan. 7, 2018 2:14 PM UTC

We’ve identified a few ideal NBA betting matchups coming up for the week of January 8-11, including the Cavaliers at the Raptors, a pair of Western Conference ‘unders’ in Sacramento and Denver, and the Mavericks poor home defense against losing teams like the Magic.

Monday: Spurs at Kings (10 p.m. ET)

Sacramento’s defense is as inconsistent as any unit in the NBA, but one area they regularly fail at is guarding the 3-pointer. The team allows a league-high 12.1 per game. The shot has revolutionized the league and its success rate often dictates betting market results. The Spurs offense, however, does not capitalize on these deficiencies. Against opponents surrendering more than the league average of 10.4 treys a night, San Antonio has reached their projected team total in just eight of 10 contests on the road. It averages 96.2 points per game, hitting a lowly 7.0 3-pointers. The ‘under’ is 9-1 in this spot, a 189.6 average final score sinking 11.6 points below a 201.2 average total. Factor in the Kings anemic offense, and oddsmakers will struggle to find a number low enough to attract fair action. Lean ‘under’ here.

Tuesday: Magic at Mavericks (8:30 p.m. ET)

Dallas is 2-10 SU and ATS in its last 12 at American Airlines Center hosting opponents with a losing record. This does not include a matchup with the Knicks on Sunday. Both wins and covers occurred in four meetings when the visitors fell against the spread by 10 points or more in their prior contest. Dallas is only good enough of late to beat up weaker when wounded. The Magic covered a 9-point spread in a 131-127 home loss to the Cavaliers Saturday night. Confidence is high and Orlando sees this as a winnable game. Bet it does.

Hawks at Nuggets (9 p.m. ET)

In 2015, the ‘over’ hit at a 61.5 percent rate at Pepsi Center. Last year, the bet cashed 59.0 percent of the time. High altitude, coupled with a run-and-gun Nuggets offense, outpaced the market consistently. This season, the over/under is 8-10 overall. Denver finally fields some defense, and it shines against the league’s weaker offenses. Teams averaging fewer than the NBA scoring average of 105.5 points, put up just 91.9 points per game at the venue. The ‘under’ is 6-1, the combined score staying a whopping 16.3 points below a 210.1 average game total. Atlanta enters 19th in scoring with 103.5 points per tilt.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

INTERESTING pic.twitter.com/1xsallDp6Z

— Denver Nuggets (@nuggets) January 7, 2018
\n"}[/]

Thursday: Cavaliers at Raptors

The Cavaliers will likely tip off rare underdogs for the sixth time this season at Toronto. When LeBron James suits up catching points on the road, the ‘under’ is an automatic lean. The bet is 24-11-1 since rejoining Cleveland in 2014, including the last three this season at Boston, Golden State, and Philly. Three of four overtime games have helped trigger the ‘over.’

Cleveland’s defense tends to clamp down in this spot, allowing just 10 of 32 opponents to score more than their projected team total in non-overtime contests. Only the Wizards surpassed the mark this season, the Cavs holding foes 6.3 points below expectations.

Friday: Jazz at Hornets

Even 'The Hive' can’t help put some buzz in a lethargic Hornets offense against good shot-stopping teams. Charlotte is 1-7 SU and ATS when hosting those holding opponents to 46.2 percent or less from the floor. It averages 96.4 points per game on an abysmal 38.7 percent shooting.

As of publication, the Jazz are right on the mark in opponent field goal percentage, but see the figure balloon to 47.8 in 21 games without star center Rudy Gobert in the lineup. The defensive force is expected to miss with a knee injury, which means the Hornets may actually put up some points. They post 111.8 per night in Charlotte versus those yielding a rate higher than 46.3, going 9-3 SU and ATS. Lean the Hornets to cover.

comment here