Sweet Spots in NBA: Fade Warriors with Curry Among Injured

curry hurt

Jay Pryce

Sunday, March 18, 2018 12:52 PM UTC

Sunday, Mar. 18, 2018 12:52 PM UTC

In our NBA betting sweet spots we look at the Curry-less Warriors on the road, the Timberwolves in games with a high total, and the Rockets hosting poor opponents.

NBA: Sweet Spots of the WeekMonday: Warriors vs. Spurs

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The injury-riddled Warriors close out a quick two-game road trip at San Antonio on Monday night minus their big three: Stephen Curry (tweaked right ankle), Kevin Durant (right rib soreness) and Klay Thompson (fractured right thumb). Missing Curry, the core to coach Steve Kerr’s success, is the difference in this situation. Without the two-time MVP, Golden State is 7-8 SU and 4-11 ATS on the road during Kerr’s tenure. It is failing to cover a -2.1 average line by 5.0 points per game. At 26-8, the Spurs own the fourth-best home record in the NBA. Expect them to tip off as favorites for the clash. The Dubs, when going off as underdogs or short-priced chalk of less than three points, have dropped three of four by double digits with Curry on the mend since 2014. Lean San Antonio and do not be shocked if the result ends up one-sided.

Tuesday: Clippers vs. Timberwolves

The average game total in the NBA this season is 212.2 points. The "over" is 31-17 when the Timberwolves tip off in a matchup with a higher closing number. Where this wager is most profitable is when Minny is up against good shooting teams, going 26-11 against opponents entering with a field-goal percentage higher than 45 percent. The bet has cashed in nine of the last 12 contests. The Clippers combine for 217.4 points per game and own a 47.1-percent shooting rate — 223.2 and 48.8 since trading Blake Griffin to the Pistons in late January. Points will be aplenty and more than advertised.

Thursday: Pistons vs. Rockets

The Rockets’ offense is explosive anywhere and everywhere, yet the three or four points tacked on to the betting line for home-curt advantage at Toyota Center are burning backers badly when they host poorer teams. Visitors owning a negative average margin of victory on the season are just 3-12 SU in the building, but a profitable 14-1 ATS in the betting market. The Pistons enter with a -1.7 point differential and a 30-39 SU record for the year. The Rockets are failing to cover a 12.1 average line by 6.6 points per game in this scenario; single digits have settled 11 of the 15 contests. Coupled with a 221.4 game total, the market projects the offense to score 117.2 points in this situation. The team averages 112.5 in regulation time instead. At least one in the triumvirate between James Harden, Chris Paul, and Clint Capela has sat out in nearly half the games, going 4-3 SU 1-6 ATS, yet offense is putting up more in this spot then when all three suit up at 113.4 points per game. Houston is 37-2 SU and 23-16 ATS when the three start a game together this season. Pistons plus the points is the way to go.

Friday: Bucks vs. Bulls

The Bulls allow 109.5 points per game, ranking 25th in the NBA in scoring defense. Place them in the United Center against low-scoring opponents and the unit tightens up. Chicago is 13-5 ATS hosting teams posting fewer than the NBA average of 106.3 points per game. It allows 102.1 a night in regulation time, covering a 1.1 average line by 3.9 points per game. Milwaukee puts up 105.5 per night. Lean Da Bulls.

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