Surprisingly Low Totals Set with Pistons-Pacers & Thunder-Spurs

Charles Stark

Friday, November 17, 2017 2:03 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 17, 2017 2:03 PM UTC

Oddsmakers I believe have come out with two surprising totals when Detroit travels to take on Indiana, and Oklahoma City visits San Antonio.  It seems there is a strong value in backing the under in these matchups, read on and find out why. 

Detroit vs. Indiana

Total 209.5

This line started out by oddsmakers at 211 but has dropped a little bit and for my NBA pick, I’m going to back the under. For me, this is what I would call a reverse play as the line doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense when we dig into the statistics. The other night we had Indiana on the under versus Memphis and they shot absolutely lights out going way over the total, but I’ve had a hard time believing they’re going to be able to repeat that performance two games in a row,  especially facing a Detroit team that matches up with them quite well. On the season although the Pistons have been pushing some decent tempo they sure aren’t allowing much allowing just 81.8 attempts per game which ranks them fifth. This will be a big contrast against an Indiana team that really likes to get up and down and can flat out shoot percentage-wise ranking fifth at 47.8% from the floor. Offensively, Detroit has not been bad either shooting 45.6% overall so this line is a real head-scratcher to me. Without getting too philosophical it just seems to me that oddsmakers are tempting bettors to back the over and I am not going to bite.

Free NBA Pick: Under 209.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio

Total 198.5

At first glance at this total set by oddsmakers, one would think that this line is way off, but this Oklahoma City team has a much different dynamic than what we’ve seen in years past by putting defense first. Surprisingly Oklahoma City comes into this game with the better defensive statistics when compared to San Antonio, and currently, they are number one in the NBA allowing just 34.8 field goals made per game. Not to say that San Antonio has been bad on the defensive end, but statistically, they’re not even close to where they were last year. Still, they rank at least in the middle the league in most defensive categories and currently rank ninth and 10th in the NBA in opponent shooting efficiency and opponent field goals made per game. As well, these two teams have simply not allowed opponents to score a lot with Oklahoma City allowing just 97.1 points per game, and San Antonio 98.9 per game ranking them second and fourth in the NBA respectively. This to me looks like it won’t be very fast pace and defenses will come to play.

Free NBA Pick: Under 197.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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