Surprising Offense Makes ‘over’ the NBA Pick in Detroit

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, November 17, 2014 4:39 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 17, 2014 4:39 PM UTC

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.


Offense is not the first thing that comes to mind for either of these two teams, but the ‘over’ appears to have sneaky value Monday night when the Orlando Magic (4-7, 2-5 away) pay a visit to the Detroit Pistons (3-7, 2-2 home) at The Palace of Auburn Hills in Detroit, MI at 7:35 ET in a game available on FOX Sports - Florida.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 191 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘over’ set at +100.

Two Road Wins Already and Oladipo Back
The Magic are actually 4-3 since starting the year at 0-4, and it helps that last year’s Rookie of the Year runner-up Victor Oladipo made his seasonal debut two games ago after missing the first nine games with facial fractures. Furthermore two of the Magic’s wins have come on the road, which is significant for a team that had the worst road record in the NBA last season when they went 1-28 away from home from January 1st onward.

The Pistons are returning home from a 1-3 road trip, where they covered the last three games ATS, including when they were a nice NBA pick outright winner in overtime at Oklahoma City. They now have a good chance to improve on their 3-7 record with nine of their next 12 games over the next three weeks being here at The Palace.

Magically Second in NBA in Three-Point Shooting
Few people could have predicted that Orlando would be second in the NBA in three-point shooting after 11 games, but that is precisely where they sit at 40.4 percent, as former Denver Nugget Evan Fournier has provided a major spark after being acquired in the Arron Afflalo trade during the off-season, shooting a blistering 51.1 percent beyond the three-point arc and 48.9 percent overall while averaging 17.6 points.

He joins Orlando’s walking double-double Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging his customary 18.2 points and 11.5 rebounds in the early going, and another sharp-shooter in Tobias Harris, who is right behind Vucevic with his 17.9 points per game. Moreover Oladipo has scored 13 and 18 points respectively in his first two games back, so he give the Magic four starters all capable of scoring with the other starter Channing Frye adding a veteran influence.

The flip side is that none of the starters will ever be confused with any Defensive Player of the Year, so with Oladipo back, look for the average combined score of all Orlando games to start rising from the current 195.2 points per matchup, which in itself is already high enough to go ‘over’ this posted total.

Five Players Average Double-Digits
The Pistons underachieved last year despite appearing to have some nice talent on their roster, and although they are playing a bit better in the early going this year as evidenced by the 3-0 ATS run, that has still not manifested itself into more wins on the court yet, something that Detroit might rectify with the favorable scheduling coming up.

That is not to mention that the Pistons brought in a new veteran head coach in Stan Van Gundy to try and make the obvious talent on the Detroit roster more cohesive. And yes there is talent here as the Pistons have three guards averaging double-digit points in Brandon Jennings, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and D.J. Augustin, as well as talent up front in the underrated Greg Monroe (16.8 points, 10.8 rebounds per game) and the enigmatic Josh Smith.

Smith is perhaps the biggest key to the offense and Van Gundy’s biggest project., as he leads the team in field goal attempts, which is not surprising given that Smith never saw a shot he did not like no matter how bad in reality it was, but all of those shots have led to just a 36.5 percent field goal percentage and 13.8 points per game. While that make Smith the fifth player on the team in double-digits, this offense has a chance to be good if he can harness his shot selection.

And the good news there is that he has cut his attempts down to 29 in the last two games while not leading the club in shots taken either game, and that improved selection has resulted in 18 points followed by 11 points vs. the stingiest defense in the NBA in Memphis. If that progress continues, the Pistons should be expected to improve on their current 93.0 points per game, and facing a team that plays little defense tonight also helps.

Four of Last Five Meetings Exceeded 191
Finally, while the ‘over’ and ‘under’ have split in the last five head-to-head meetings between these squads with each going 2-2-1, those five meetings have averaged 200.3 total points with three of them producing over 200 points and another one 195 points, with a 190-point contest being the only one of the five falling just short of this posted total.

Therefore, look for recent history to repeat and for this contest to get up ‘over’ this relatively low total when Orlando visits Detroit on Monday.

NBA Pick: Magic, Pistons ‘over’ 191 (+100)

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