Suns vs. Mavericks Game 3 NBA Picks: Under Worth a Look in Dallas

Henry John

Last Updated: May 6, 2022 9:13 AM EDT • 5 min 4 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 04: Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns handles the ball against Jalen Brunson #13 of the Dallas Mavericks during the first half of Game Two of the Western Conference Second Round NBA Playoffs at Footprint Center on May 04, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Suns defeated the Mavericks 129-109. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Christian Petersen / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The nightcap to Friday's NBA playoffs doubleheader features Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals matchup between the Phoenix Suns and Dallas Mavericks. Here are our Suns-Mavericks picks.

Compared to the odds for Games 1 and 2, current Game 3 betting lines suggest that home court is worth five full points or more to the point spread. Should bettors consider buying low on Phoenix?

The Suns (6-2 against the spread, 6-2 Over/Under) found themselves trailing by a bucket after the first half of play in Game 2 on Wednesday night. Phoenix successfully turned that slim deficit into a six-point lead after three quarters. That being said, Game 2 was still very much hanging in the balance heading to the final frame. That's when Suns point guard Chris Paul decided to take over. The future Hall of Famer managed to knock down every one of his first nine field-goal attempts to begin the second half. Paul was the catalyst for the Suns' 40-point fourth quarter as they earned both the outright and ATS win.

As for the Mavericks (5-3 ATS, 4-4 O/U), Jason Kidd's crew is now tasked with trying to pick up the pieces and get back into this series at home. The fact that the Suns have now won 10 consecutive head-to-head meetings over the Mavs is worth noting.

From a matchup standpoint, Dallas simply does not have the proven depth offensively to keep pace. This is especially true if the Mavericks continue to struggle defensively as they did in Games 1 and 2. The Suns outscored Dallas 50-32 on points in the paint in Wednesday's Game 2. It won't matter how many points star Luka Doncic scores if the Mavs fail to make the proper defensive adjustments going forward.

Here are my betting picks and predictions for Friday's NBA playoff matchup between the Suns and Mavericks (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)

Suns vs. Mavericks Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, May 6, 9:30 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Suns vs. Mavericks Odds Analysis

Despite things going poorly for the Mavericks in The Valley of the Sun, the NBA betting market has been willing to get behind them ahead of Friday's game. Perhaps returning home will be just the cure for Dallas. Oddsmakers initially tabbed the Mavs as a one-point home underdog for Game 3. Consensus odds now list this matchup as an even pick'em.

Despite the slight point spread move in the Mavs' favor, the majority of public bets have backed the Suns on the road. Roughly 63% of all ATS tickets like Phoenix to take an insurmountable 3-0 series lead on Friday night.

As for the total, the general direction of the line move has been towards the Under. The opening O/U line was set at 219.5. At the time of writing, the NBA betting market consensus is currently one point lower at 218.5. Bettors can still find totals as high as 219 available. Some sportsbooks have already dropped the line to 218 as well.

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Suns vs. Mavericks Picks

Moneyline: Suns (-108 via FanDuel) ???Spread: Suns -1 (-110 via BetMGM) ??Total: Under 219 (-110 via FanDuel) ????Prop: Chris Paul Over 8.5 assists (-143 via BetMGM) ????

Suns vs. Mavericks Predictions

Suns ML (-108)

The Suns have been the best team in the NBA all season long. Sixty-four wins don't just happen by accident. Many NBA betting analysts have argued that this year's Suns are deeper and better than the team that won the Western Conference a season ago.

Given just how talented and dangerous the Suns are, a -108 moneyline price feels like a bit of a bargain. Yes, Phoenix is set to embark on hostile territory. Winning on the road in the NBA playoffs is never easy. That being said, the Suns are clearly set apart when it comes to depth of talent.

Other than Doncic, who can the Mavericks count on for consistent offense? Last round, Jalen Brunson looked like a candidate to be a stable second option. He was saddled with early foul trouble in both Games 1 and 2.

Speaking of Doncic, the Mavs have a real concern going forward in that any points he scores, he is liable to give back on the defensive end. The fourth quarter of Game 2 saw both Paul and Devin Booker take Doncic on one-on-one and win consistently as the Suns pulled away.

Suns -1 (-110)

With the Suns being listed no lower than a pick'em across major sportsbooks, the only option for an ATS play is to lay a single point. Much like our rationale for backing Phoenix on the moneyline, one can easily make an argument that a one-point spread is pretty cheap considering how Games 1 and 2 of this series played out.

Keep in mind that the Suns were no less than a five-point favorite ahead of Games 1 and 2. Ahead of Wednesday's contest, the NBA betting market moved the line up to as high as Suns -6.5 in some spots. Is a change in venue from the Footprint Center in Phoenix to Dallas' American Airlines Center truly worth a full 5-6 points?

Again, from a personnel standpoint, the fact that multiple Suns players are capable of providing a lift offensively cannot be overstated. Truthfully, it's fair to question whether the Mavericks are even capable of shoring up their interior defense after Wednesday's debacle. If Suns centers JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo continue to provide high-energy minutes off the bench behind Deandre Ayton, Dallas' hopes of prolonging the inevitable are probably quite bleak.

Under 219 (-110)

Compared to the Game 1 O/U of 215, the entire NBA betting market has the total for Game 3 set no less than three points higher. This adjustment comes as no surprise given how each of Games 1 and 2 flew Over the number.

The Suns have shot the lights out throughout the playoffs so far. This trend goes back to Phoenix's first-round series against New Orleans. After shooting north of 50% from the field as a team in Game 1, the Suns knocked down a whopping 64.5% of their field-goal attempts on Wednesday. Even a deep and talented team like Phoenix cannot be relied upon to maintain that kind of shooting percentage long term.

With the series shifting to Texas, the Mavericks will have the home crowd behind them. While it won't help the various mismatches Dallas has to overcome defensively, it does figure to spark some energy. Knowing that the betting total is four points higher than it was for the series-opener makes the Under worthy of a look.

Chris Paul Over 8.5 assists (-143)

Relative to NBA player prop totals from earlier in these playoffs, Paul's assist prop has dipped by two. This can certainly be attributed to the fact that CP3 has recorded no more than eight assists in each of the last three games. This stretch comes after Paul started out the playoffs with five straight games in which he dished 10 assists or more.

In a nutshell, the adjusted prop line of 8.5 helpers sets up a prime buy-low opportunity on the Suns' point guard. After all, Paul averaged 10.8 assists over the course of the full season. Betting on him to finish nearly three assists short of his per-game average for a fourth consecutive contest is hardly ideal.

Perhaps one of the reasons that Paul has not had as many assists in the first two games of these Western Conference semifinals is that he didn't have to. Rather than dishing the basketball off to teammates in the fourth quarter on Wednesday, Paul simply scored over Doncic himself. One has to imagine the Mavericks will adjust defensively to shut this down in Game 3. In turn, the crafty Paul will be in a position of passing by default.

Where to Bet on Suns-Mavericks Picks

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Suns-Mavericks picks made 5/6/2022 at 1:04 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.