Suns vs. Heat Picks, Predictions: Can Phoenix Prevail without CP3?
The Phoenix Suns are searching for something positive to build upon. With Chris Paul banged up, will they suffer another defeat on Monday when playing the Miami Heat? Read on for our top Suns-Heat NBA picks.
The Suns suffered a shocking defeat to the Orlando Magic as 7-point favorites on Friday and have now dropped three of their last five games as they slip into the peloton of the Western Conference.
The Heat are fresh off of back-to-back wins over the Charlotte Hornets to bring their record to 6-7, but they’re just 3-10 against the spread to start their very shaky season.
Here are our Suns-Heat NBA picks Monday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Suns vs. Heat Game Info
Date: Monday, Nov. 14, 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: BSSUN, BSAZ
Location: FTX Arena, Miami, FL
Suns vs. Heat Odds
Suns vs. Heat Odds Analysis
The Suns opened as 1.5-point underdogs and few have seen that as an opportunity to buy low on Phoenix. The Suns are all the way out to 2-point underdogs at most shops with DraftKings reporting that 53% of the bets and just 41% of the money is on the Suns.
The Over has attracted 69% of the bets and 72% of the money, but the total is actually down from 217.5 points to 215 across the board and even 214.5 via BetMGM.
Suns vs. Heat Picks
- Spread: Heat -1.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
- Over/Under: Under 215 (-107 via PointsBet)
- Prop: Jimmy Butler Under 23.5 (-120 via DraftKings)
Suns vs. Heat ATS Pick
Heat -1.5 (-110) ★★★★★
The biggest tidbit heading into this game is that Suns point guard Chris Paul, who has missed the last two games due to a heel injury, is in danger of missing a third straight with the ailment. The line would seem to indicate that there’s a low likelihood that he plays, as would the fact that he remains questionable. When you factor in his age and consider that the Suns will seemingly have no issues making the playoffs, I think it’s fair to assume Phoenix will continue exercising caution and hold Paul out of action on Monday.
Now, why’s that significant? Phoenix is winning by 11.9 points per 100 possessions with Paul on the floor—the highest mark on the team—and has a net rating of just plus-2.3 in the non-Paul minutes. While the Suns are still a winning team without him, a near-12-point swing is rather significant and should give you a good idea of how Monday’s game will go.
Miami ranks just outside the top 10 when it comes to points per game allowed to opposing point guards and life will likely be hard on Suns guard Cameron Payne, whose 22 points couldn’t help the Suns avoid a walloping at the hands of Orlando last time out.
The Heat have been rather middling on both ends of the floor, but they’ve really looked like a competent bunch the last couple of games, most recently posting a 128.2 offensive rating against Charlotte. I think they’re simply the better side.
Suns vs. Heat O/U Pick
Under 215 (-107) ★★★★
I mentioned the Suns were worse without Paul on the floor, but that impact has been felt mostly on offense. They’re scoring 118 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the court and just 108.3 per 100 possessions when he’s off the floor.
Your math isn’t deceiving you, that means that the team’s played defense at the exact same level with or without him, but the offense has suffered by 10 points per 100 possessions. Now, it’s easy to see why this total is so low, and why it continues to drop.
Without Paul’s facilitation, it’s going to be very difficult for the Suns to score against a pretty good defensive backcourt in Miami. Five of the last six Suns games cashed the Under, and with the fourth-slowest pace in basketball, it’s likely that trend continues.
Suns vs. Heat Prop Pick
Butler Under 23.5 points (-120) ★★★★
This seems to be a rather preposterous line to hang on Heat star Jimmy Butler. While I recognize that Tyler Herro is questionable for this tilt, this seems like a massive over-correction.
The veteran has gone over this number in only five of his 11 games this season, and three of those came in the season’s first four games. Butler's usage rate fell to a season-low 14.9% last game, and over his last three games, his assist rate is at 34.4% after sitting well under 30% in the first eight games of the season.
Butler is opting to pass a bit more and has never been much of a scorer anyway. Phoenix’s defense ranks second in the NBA against small forwards with just 17.6 points allowed per game. This one’s an easy call for me.
Where to Bet on Suns vs. Heat Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Suns-Heat picks from 11/14/2022 at 3:16 pm. ET.
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