Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Monday.
Although both of these team can run up scores, this posted total seems overinflated because of that Monday night when the Phoenix Suns (12-9, 6-5 away) pay a visit to the Los Angeles Clippers (14-5, 7-3 home) at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:35 ET in a game available on Prime Ticket.
The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 214½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -103.
Clips Have Won Six Straight
The Clippers enter this contest riding a six-game winning streak as after winning the final three games of their most recent road trip, they have gone 3-0 thus far on a four-game home stand that ends tonight, most recently beating Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans 120-100 on Saturday night behind 30 points by Blake Griffin. The Clippers fly east after this game to being an Eastern Conference road trip at Indiana vs. the Pacers on Wednesday.
The Suns on the other hand are wrapping up a three-game road trip, a trip that began with Phoenix impressively being the winning NBA pick vs. the Mavericks in Dallas 118-106 on Friday. They Suns were not as successful the following night when completing a Texas Two-Step on Saturday, losing 100-95 to the Rockets in Houston. Phoenix has a quick turnaround after this contest hosting the Miami Heat back in the desert tomorrow night.
High Scoring Teams, but THIS High Scoring?
Now neither of these teams will be confused with half-court clubs, as both are in the top five in the NBA in scoring with the Clippers fourth at 106.4 points per game and the Suns right behind in fifth at 105.2 points. Still, a simple addition of those averages yields “only” 211.6 points, and looking at the combined averages of all of these teams’ games this season, Phoenix games are averaging a total of 208.2 points and Los Angeles game are at 204.9 combined points.
Both of those averages are considerably less than this posted total and not much has changed recently, with the last five Suns’ games averaging 207.2 points and the last five Clippers’ games at 208.6. So as oftentimes happens when two high-scoring teams oppose each other, this posted total seems padded in anticipation of a shipload of ‘over’ money, and that usually has the effect of actually giving value to the ‘under’, which we believe is the case here.
Defenses Not as Bad as Reputations
Besides, it is not as is these teams are incapable of playing defense when they want to, as they are actually both in the top half of the NBA in field goal percentage allowed. The Clippers are 15th allowing 45.0 percent shooting and they are also an excellent sixth in three-point defense allowing just a 32.5 percent success rate! Furthermore Saturday’s game vs. the Pelicans marked just the second time in the last seven games the Clippers allowed 100 points.
Take note that they allowed exactly 100 points in that contest, and the other time an opponent went over the century mark the Timberwolves scored only 101 with many of those points coming in garbage time during a blowout, so it is not as if teams are running up humongous scores vs. the Clippers like earlier in the year.
Phoenix meanwhile is rather surprisingly 11th in field goal percentage allowed at 44.8 percent and 10th in three-point defense at 34.2 percent, so as has seemingly been the case forever, the Suns’ high-scoring games are more often than not a function of their phrenetic pace.
An ‘under’ Head-to-Head Series
Finally, if you want some validation that posted totals are usually inflated when these two squads get together, consider that the ‘under’ is now 10-4-1 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings!
So while we are not looking for a defensive struggle by any means, look for the Suns and Clippers to sneak ‘under’ this bloated posted number when they clash at the Staples Center on Monday.
NBA Pick: Suns, Clippers ‘under’ 214½ (-103)