Sunday's NBA Picks: Sports Books Leaving Room to Safely Bet 'Over'

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, February 1, 2015 3:26 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 1, 2015 3:26 PM UTC

Even though Super Bowl is on tonight, we still have NBA Odds schedule for Sunday. I think we can pad our Super Bowl bankroll with these two games, so follow along as I release my NBA Picks of the day!

Heat vs. Celtics
Miami is going to be without Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng for the foreseeable future, and if that doesn’t hurt their chances of making the playoffs, I don’t know what will. Because of these two crucial injuries to two of Miami’s best three players, the NBA Odds have the Celtics of all teams as -3 ½ favorites, with a total of 187 points. While the spread really inviting to take points with the Heat, I see the total as a much better wager on this Sunday afternoon.

The total has already dropped three full points since it opened at 190 points, and while that could be an indicator that the under is the play, it’s actually opening up some nice over value. The Celtics still play with a very fast pace, and with the lack of guards for the Heat, I would not be surprised if the Heat, who rank 30th in the league in pace, start to play as fast as the 3rd ranked team in pace, the Celtics.

The over is 18-8-1 in the Celtics last 27 home games, and the over is 3-0-1 in their last four games as home favorites. While Miami has been an under cashing machine this season, look to place your NBA picks for tonight’s game to go over.

My Free NBA Pick: OVER 187 at Bodog

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Lakers vs. Knicks
Normally this game would get some viewership in every other year, but in this one it’s another battle between two teams who could both be in the top three in the lottery this season. The NBA odds actually favor the Knicks in this one at -2 ½, with a total of 190 ½. Once again I think the sportsbooks are leaving some room for us to bet the over, and even with a higher total than the Heat and Celtics, this one has even more value.

These two teams are a mess defensively, and even without Kobe Bryant the Lakers have been playing ok basketball on offense. While Nick Young likely won’t be back for this game, the door is apparently still open for him to play. This could boost the Lakers offense even more on the road here against Carmelo Anthony. It appears that Anthony is ready to go today as well, so I am once again taking the over.

The Knicks have had two days off which should help Anthony’s knee a little, and when playing losing teams this season, the Knicks have been good. They cashed the over in five of their last seven against losing teams, and for the Lakers they have cashed the over at 11-5 in their last 16 games against losing teams. While these are early-afternoon starts on the east coast, I don’t think that will matter too much. If these two games were between four playoff bound teams, the under might be the best play, however three of these four teams are a few weeks away from being eliminated from the playoffs. Defense might not be their number one priority. Take the over once again.

My Free NBA Pick: OVER 190 ½ at 5Dimes 

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