Strong Play Guaranteed: Profit From Heat As Your NBA Pick Against Raptors

Chance Harper

Saturday, May 7, 2016 2:36 PM GMT

Saturday, May. 7, 2016 2:36 PM GMT

After hitting both of our NBA picks in this series so far, odds makers have made the Heat a decent home favorite against Raptors. Can Miami pull away in the series?

Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat
NBA odds makers have come out making Miami a -5.5 favorite like at Bookmaker -110. We've been right about them the first two games of the series and for one of my NBA picks I like for them tonight to win this game by double digits. For the most part I believe they have outplayed Toronto and at home they have the ability to blow teams out.

 

Toronto Raptors
In game two Toronto shot 42% from the field and just 22.2% from beyond the arc but outrebounded Miami 57-53 and pulled out the win. Toronto showed a lot of character and heart by battling in that game two after they were down in the fourth quarter but they really struggled at the free-throw line hitting just 14-26. What was most impressive was the fact they got Miami out of rhythm early forcing around 10 turnovers in the first quarter and only giving up 10 turnovers themselves the entire game.

When it was all said and done Miami had 21 turnovers which led to 24 Toronto points so defensively the Raptors were in tune in game two. They also had really balanced scoring with five guys in double digits along with four of their starters being in the plus in the plus/minus differential category. What made the difference in my opinion was that they got up a lot of attempts putting up 93 shots compared to Miami at only 79. For this game three I am anticipating for the Heat to do a much better job in limiting that many attempts and for Toronto overall to struggle from the floor offensively.

 

Miami Heat
In game two Miami shot over 49% from the floor and 35.7% from distance outshooting Toronto in both categories but unable to pull out the win. I really thought after Miami got past that pretty tough first quarter they outplayed Toronto for most of the game but it is never easy to win on the road in the NBA. In fact, from what I have seen Miami has been the better team on the floor for both games so I only expect for that aspect to be enhanced tonight at home.

Toronto has not been playing very well in my opinion and Miami has some tough matchups for them. A couple key aspects is Miami has been a bit better in the paint offensively, like in game two where they outscored Toronto 46-42 and not allowing a lot of extra chances outrebounding Toronto defensively 36-26. What killed them in game two was those turnovers and that is something I believe they will make a point of focus going into this game three. I really like for Miami to win this game by double digits. Still unconvinced? Read an additional capper's breakdown of this game and cash in on some NBA.

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Free NBA Pick: Miami Heat +5 -105
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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