Streaking Timberwolves & Warriors Clash At Oracle Arena

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, November 8, 2017 1:15 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2017 1:15 PM UTC

The second and third place teams in the highly competitive Western Conference clash Wednesday night (10:30 p.m. ET) at Oracle Arena as the 8-3 Warriors host the 7-3 Timberwolves. Golden State is an 11-point favorite on the oddsboard.

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Free NBA Picks: Under 229.5Best Line Offered: at 5DimesMinnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors (-11)


Dubs Offense Inconsistent, Line Favorable For Upset?

Golden State scored fewer than 97 points once at Oracle Arena last season, That’s the number the team posted in its 17-point win (97-80) over the Heat on Monday. The Warriors registered a season-low .431 effective field goal rate. The big three, Steph Curry (5-of-19), Kevin Durant (5-of-13), and Klay Thompson (5-of-15) each shot less than 39 percent from the floor. The Dubs scored 22.8 points below betting market projections. They have failed to surpass its team total in five of the last seven contests.

One player performing well of late offensively is the least likely out of the starting five: Draymond Green. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year is averaging 16.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.8 assists in 28.6 minutes during the Warriors’ current 4-game win streak. Green is 9-of-14 from the 3-point area in this span.

Golden State is 46-6 SU and 25-24-3 ATS at home in the last calendar year, tipping off -13.4 favorites on average. Remarkably, it has gone off 7.5-point chalk or more in every game. Oddsmakers opened the Dubs 11-point favorites for the Timberwolves visit, which gives the most daring bettors hope for an upset. All six of Golden State’s home defeats occurred in the 23 contests gifting less than its average 13.4 points. The team is 10-12-1 ATS in this spot.

 Timberwolves Streaking, Tough Head-to-Head

Minnesota begins a short 3-game road trip at Oakland having won and covered the spread in five straight games. The new-look contenders are playing up to the hype. It’s the longest win streak for the franchise since 2009. The ATS streak is a bit ominous, however. The Timberwolves are 6-15 ATS all-time after covering in five straight.

The Timberwolves are staying ahead of the number in recent head-to-head matchups, though. Minny is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 versus the Warriors, covering a 12.7 average spread by 5.7 points per game. It’s tipped off underdogs in each. The upstart franchise has won only two games outright in this span, once as 15.5-point pups (12-117) at Oracle Arena in April 2016, and again last March (103-102) catching just 4.5 points. Good team defense and favorable matchups have allowed the Timberwolves to keep Golden State from reaching its projected team total in all but two contests. Minnesota averages 105.3 points to the Warriors’ 112.3 in this span.

Defense is the weak link for the Timberwolves to begin the year—uncharacteristic for a Tom Thibodeau-led team. They own the NBA’s fourth-worst defensive rating (108.2) and allow a league-high 49.5 shooting percentage. The Warriors thrash such poor units at home. With Curry and Durant in the starting lineup, Golden State averages 127.8 points per game at Oracle Arena versus teams yielding more than 40 field goals per game. Minnesota’s 43.3 allowed ranks highest in the league.


The Pick

The Warriors have not been held below the century mark in back-to-back home games since a 2015 playoff matchup against the defensive-oriented Grizzlies. Expect them to overcome their shooting woes from last game, but will it be enough to surpass a 229.5 total? Minnesota presents some great defensive matchups, including Andrew Wiggins canceling out the red-hot Draymond Green and Karl-Anthony Towns owning the paint. Head coach Steve Kerr has Golden State playing defense-first to help rebound from a pedestrian 4-3 start. The Warriors have kept their last three opponents below their projected team total by an average of 12.6 points per game. Expect another strong effort here in a potential Western Conference playoff preview. Pick ‘under’ 229.5 for your best bet. 

Check out SBR Picks Live YouTube Page prior to the game to gain added insight and handicapping analysis for tonight’s top NBA showdown. 

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