Stick With ‘Under’ When Warriors Visit Wolves

Thursday, March 28, 2019 10:35 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 28, 2019 10:35 PM UTC

With both teams driving the ‘under’ to the pay window, our NBA pick for Friday’s game between the Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves is easy.

<p style="text-align:right"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 27: 22-22-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 32-15 Totals</em></p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Golden State (51-23 SU, 31-42-1 ATS) at Minnesota (33-41 SU, 35-39 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/golden-state-warriors-vs-minnesota-timberwolves-3569105/odds/" target="_blank">Under</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4429&amp;book=Heritage" target="_blank">Heritage</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3569105, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,139], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Sweating the NBA can be painful sometimes. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/bear-essentials-take-under-for-warriors-grizzlies/89418/" target="_blank">We had the ‘under’</a> for Wednesday’s game between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies, and things were looking pretty good late in the fourth quarter – until the Grizz gave up the ghost and allowed the Warriors to extend their lead. Final score: Golden State 118, Memphis 103 (Over 220). You might have gotten a push with the total at 221 on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball" target="_blank">NBA odds board</a>, but we’re scoring it as a loss here at the home office.<br /><br />Gotta stick with the program. The Warriors face the Minnesota Timberwolves next, and while the ‘over’ is 40-34 for Minnesota this year, it’s also 1-5 in their last six games. Given all the injuries the Wolves are dealing with, we expect more of the same on Friday.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Jerryd Has Aides</strong></h2><p>Not having either of your Top 2 point guards will definitely cramp your style. Jeff Teague (plus-0.1 OBPM, minus-2.5 DBPM) and Derrick Rose (plus-2.4 OBPM, minus-2.0 DBPM) are both out for the remainder of the season; Tyus Jones (minus-0.7 OBPM, minus-1.2 DBPM) is the next man up, with Jerryd Bayless (minus-2.9 OBPM, minus-2.5 DBPM) coming in off the bench. Yowza.<br /><br />But wait, there’s more. Taj Gibson (plus-0.8 OBPM, plus-0.2 DBPM) is doubtful for Friday with a strained left calf. That means more frontcourt minutes for Gorgui Dieng (minus-1.4 OBPM, plus-1.6 DBPM) and Keith Bates-Diop (minus-3.3 OBPM, minus-0.2 DBPM). Factor in the continued offensive suck from Andrew Wiggins (minus-2.0 OBPM, minus-1.3 DBPM), and you’ve got the formula for a low-scoring game.</p><h2> </h2><h2><strong>Bogut That Joint</strong></h2><p>The Warriors did us dirty on Wednesday – actually, we blame the Grizz for taking their foot off the gas – but the ‘under’ is still 11-2 since the end of February, and this team is just starting to warm up defensively for the playoffs. The arrival of Andrew Bogut from his MVP season in Australia will only help matters, even if Bogut is mostly limited to mop-up minutes for Golden State. He was also named NBL Best Defensive Player for 2019 after leading the Sydney Kings deep into the playoffs.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "\n&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;\"🚫\" - Andrew Bogut &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/ejFOXCEfV7\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/ejFOXCEfV7&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/warriors/status/1110009215081299968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;March 25, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />One more piece of important information: Friday’s matchup will be the first of back-to-back games for Minnesota, although both are at home. They’ll have to go even deeper into their bench than usual, and we’re likely to see a lot of scrubs on the floor during the fourth quarter, with the Dubs favored by 9.5 points. FiveThirtyEight project Golden State at –9, so let’s stick with the total for our <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/">NBA picks</a>, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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