Stick With ‘Under’ When Tired Kings Visit Sixers

Friday, March 15, 2019 4:44 AM UTC

Friday, Mar. 15, 2019 4:44 AM UTC

Playing on zero days of rest makes the Sacramento Kings even more likely to go ‘under’ the NBA odds total for Friday’s matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 13: 19-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 29-11 Totals

Sacramento (33-34 SU, 39-27-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (43-25 SU, 32-36 ATS)

Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET

Free NBA Pick: Under

Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Any other game, and we might have recommended the Sacramento Kings for your NBA picks. They’ve got some good young talent, thanks to all those high draft picks and despite their dubious front office. It’s hard to pass on a small-market team with this much upside, but there’s a problem with Friday’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers: The Kings are playing on zero days of rest after losing 126-120 to the Boston Celtics (–7.5 at home). Philly were idle on Thursday.

Too bad the 76ers don’t have any betting value themselves. They’ve opened as 9-point home faves on the NBA odds board, which is exactly where the hoop nerds at FiveThirtyEight have them pegged with their CARMELO-based projections. The Sixers are also 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, and they’ve split a pair ATS since Joel Embiid (plus-1.4 OBPM, plus-2.8 DBPM) returned to the lineup. So forget these clowns – we’re putting the ‘under’ in our picks again. Hope you’re not bored making all that money yet.

When They Get Weary

We don’t always pick the ‘under’ here at the ranch – it just happens to be the right thing to do at the moment. The NBA started out hot with the ‘over,’ thanks to their new 14-second inbound rule and their quick whistle at the start of the season. That’s ancient history; the players are tired, they’re less motivated now that the playoffs are basically decided for most teams, and the ‘under’ is 89-73 (54.9 percent) over the past 30 days.

The Sixers are a special case. They have the ‘under’ at 36-32 on the year, after going 8-0 in their last eight games. Trading for Tobias Harris (plus-1.0 OBPM, minus-0.7 DBPM) has something to do with it, even with his offense/defense Box Plus/Minus splits; Harris can score, but as we keep saying, there’s only one ball to go around. Offensively speaking, Philadelphia are less than the sum of their parts.

Kings Of Wishful Thinking

Sacramento have something of an offense. DeAaron Fox (plus-0.9 OBPM, minus-0.1 DBPM) has made important strides as a sophomore. Buddy Hield (plus-2.8 OBPM, minus-1.9 DBPM) has no conscience as a shooter. Yet the Kings are in the middle of the pack in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency; they’ve got some imposing big men down low, including Willie Cauley-Stein (minus-0.5 OBPM, plus-2.6 DBPM).

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It's pedal to the metal until the last game of the season for Willie Cauley-Stein and the Kings. 👍🙌#SacramentoProud #Kings pic.twitter.com/4nd32LN9lK

— Kings Nation (@KingsNationCP) March 12, 2019
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We’re only going to recommend a small bet for the ‘under,’ since the Kings seem to crank up the defense at home – the ‘over’ is 19-13-1 for them on the road. It’s the zero days of rest we’re counting on to keep them and the Sixers from getting past that 233-point total. Bet if you agree, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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