Stick With ‘Under’ When Tired Kings Visit Sixers

Friday, March 15, 2019 4:44 AM UTC

Friday, Mar. 15, 2019 4:44 AM UTC

Playing on zero days of rest makes the Sacramento Kings even more likely to go ‘under’ the NBA odds total for Friday’s matchup with the Philadelphia 76ers.

<p style="text-align:center"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 13: 19-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 29-11 Totals</em></p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Sacramento (33-34 SU, 39-27-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (43-25 SU, 32-36 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Friday, 7:00 p.m. ET</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="" target="_blank">Under</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=Heritage" target="_blank">Heritage</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3568888, "sportsbooksIds":[169,180,999998,1096,19], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Any other game, and we might have recommended the Sacramento Kings for your <a href="" target="_blank">NBA picks</a>. They’ve got some good young talent, thanks to all those high draft picks and despite their dubious front office. It’s hard to pass on a small-market team with this much upside, but there’s a problem with Friday’s game against the Philadelphia 76ers: The Kings are playing on zero days of rest after losing 126-120 to the Boston Celtics (–7.5 at home). Philly were idle on Thursday.<br /><br />Too bad the 76ers don’t have any betting value themselves. They’ve opened as 9-point home faves on the <a href="" target="_blank">NBA odds board</a>, which is exactly where the hoop nerds at FiveThirtyEight have them pegged with their CARMELO-based projections. The Sixers are also 6-4 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games, and they’ve split a pair ATS since Joel Embiid (plus-1.4 OBPM, plus-2.8 DBPM) returned to the lineup. So forget these clowns – we’re putting the ‘under’ in our picks again. Hope you’re not bored making all that money yet.</p><h2>When They Get Weary</h2><p>We don’t always pick the ‘under’ here at the ranch – it just happens to be the right thing to do at the moment. The NBA started out hot with the ‘over,’ thanks to their new 14-second inbound rule and their quick whistle at the start of the season. That’s ancient history; the players are tired, they’re less motivated now that the playoffs are basically decided for most teams, and the ‘under’ is 89-73 (54.9 percent) over the past 30 days.<br /><br />The Sixers are a special case. They have the ‘under’ at 36-32 on the year, after going 8-0 in their last eight games. Trading for Tobias Harris (plus-1.0 OBPM, minus-0.7 DBPM) has something to do with it, even with his offense/defense Box Plus/Minus splits; Harris can score, but as we keep saying, there’s only one ball to go around. Offensively speaking, Philadelphia are less than the sum of their parts.</p><h2>Kings Of Wishful Thinking</h2><p>Sacramento have something of an offense. DeAaron Fox (plus-0.9 OBPM, minus-0.1 DBPM) has made important strides as a sophomore. Buddy Hield (plus-2.8 OBPM, minus-1.9 DBPM) has no conscience as a shooter. Yet the Kings are in the middle of the pack in terms of both offensive and defensive efficiency; they’ve got some imposing big men down low, including Willie Cauley-Stein (minus-0.5 OBPM, plus-2.6 DBPM).<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;It's pedal to the metal until the last game of the season for Willie Cauley-Stein and the Kings. 👍🙌&lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#SacramentoProud&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#Kings&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Kings Nation (@KingsNationCP) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;March 12, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]<br /><br />We’re only going to recommend a small bet for the ‘under,’ since the Kings seem to crank up the defense at home – the ‘over’ is 19-13-1 for them on the road. It’s the zero days of rest we’re counting on to keep them and the Sixers from getting past that 233-point total. Bet if you agree, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.</p>
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