Staying Below Projected Win Total Has Advantages for Cavaliers

Monday, October 8, 2018 3:38 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 8, 2018 3:38 PM UTC

Year 1 without LeBron James in Cleveland (again) might not be as rough as last time. However, if the Cavaliers decide to blow things up midseason and trade their veteran talent, it could be a long winter for the team and its fans.

Cavaliers' 2018-19 Season Win TotalFree NBA Pick: Under 30.5 Wins (-105)Best Line Offered: Bovada

2017-18 Record: 50-32
2017-18 ATS Record: 40-63-1
2018-19 Season Win Total (Bovada): 30.5
Odds To Make Playoffs (Bovada): +300
Odds To Win Division (BetOnline): +2500
Odds To Win Eastern Conference (BetOnline): +10000
Odds To Win NBA Championship (BetOnline): +50000

ATS Outlook

After being the worst ATS team in the NBA last season in both the regular season and the playoffs, the Cavaliers have nowhere to go but up this season ATS-wise. They will be severely undervalued to start the year with a nice group of players, and if they decide to keep this group together (unlikely) they might be able to make a run at the playoffs, and even the "over" in their NBA odds for season wins.

However, outside of Kevin Love, no Cavaliers player is signed past next season, and for teams in the East looking to add talent to make a run at the NBA Finals, they are going to be calling the Cavs a lot this season if Cleveland opens the first couple months of the season well below .500.

That’s what makes this team so interesting. They may end up as the best ATS team in the league if they keep their players together and over-perform. Or they could trade away George Hill, J.R. Smith, Tristan Thompson, Kyle Korver, and Jordan Clarkson; sit down Love over the final few months of the season; and make a run at a top-three draft pick.

The Cavs were already able to cash in their lottery pick last season for Collin Sexton, and if they can do that again, that may be more desirable for ownership than getting into the eighth seed in the East. Combined with all their assets, the likelihood of the Cavs blowing things up mid-season are pretty high.

I could be wrong but getting into the last few playoff spots in the East is going to be worse than making the lottery this year. With LeBron James probably never coming back to Cleveland, they need to think about life without him. With the exception of Love, Sexton, and maybe Larry Nance, the Cavs have no one on their roster worth building around for the future.

This more than anything is going to force their hand in trading away everyone on their roster like they did last season. Unless they open the season something crazy like 11-4, the Cavs will be in fire-sale mode by the time Christmas rolls around. If things are already falling apart in the preseason, this thing isn’t going to last long.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

J.R. doesn't care if it's preaseason.

— Cavaliers Nation (@WeAreCavsNation) October 7, 2018

How Can They Dethrone Warriors?

I have a better chance at making the NBA G-League in an open tryout than the Cavaliers have at beating the Warriors this season. That being said, if the Cavs trade away some of their talent to a contender, that may be their contribution to potentially dethroning the Warriors and preventing a three-peat. There are several veterans on Cleveland's roster who could help a contender if the Cavs decide to blow everything up.

comment here