Two teams heading in opposite directions clash when the San Antonio Spurs visit the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night. The Spurs have lost four of their last five games, including their last three while the Nuggets have won five straight contests. Should we add Denver to our NBA picks? Here’s a complete preview, including updated odds and free picks.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
Wednesday, April 7, 2021 – 09:00 PM EDT at Ball Arena
The Nuggets opened as 7-point favorites at most online sports betting sites and over at FiveThirtyEight, they have them at -9.5. This leaves a 2.5-point gap between the projections and the actual NBA odds. We need at least two points between the projections and the lines before we lay any serious wood. Here we are getting enough. FiveThirtyEight gives the Nuggets an 83 percent chance to win. The equivalent
For support, we turn to USA Today’s Jeff Sagarin’s projections; he has the Nuggets at -10.44 using his Rating numbers, and at -9.13 using his eigenvector analysis. That leaves room to grab potential betting value with the Nuggets -7 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).
The Spurs are Reeling
The Spurs split a two-game series against the Kings at home and then lost to the Hawks and Pacers in overtime, also in San Antonio before suffering a humiliating 125-101 home loss against the Cavaliers on Monday. That’s now eight losses in 10 games for the Spurs, who are now ninth in the Western Conference standings, a half-game behind the Grizzlies. Derrick White is playing extremely well, averaging 20.0 points in his last three games while DeMar DeRozan leads the way with 23.3 points and 6.2 assists in his last 10 games.
DeRozan had 20 points on Monday’s loss against the Cavs but he didn’t get much help on offense and the Spurs were outrebounded 47 to 38 and had no answer for Darius Garland, who scored a career-high 37 points. Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker IV, Trey Lyles and Keita Bates-Diop all missed the game and Walker, Lyles and Bates-Diop are all out for Wednesday.
The Nuggets Look Unstoppable Right Now
The Nuggets still haven't lost since Aaron Gordon joined the team. Their 101-94 road win against the Clippers on Thursday sent a message to the rest of the league that their new-look starting lineup with Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic is going to be a nightmare for their playoff opponents. Gordon is fitting in seamlessly with the Nuggets so far, getting great looks on offense while playing solid defense.
“These are the easiest baskets I’ve gotten in my whole career,” Aaron Gordon recently said about being in Denver. Gordon had this to say about the Nuggets: “It looks like we have all the pieces that we need. As long as we are all working together, there’s no stopping us.” It’s hard to argue with him, Jokic is playing like an MVP and we all know what Murray is capable of but Porter’s rise is an under-the-radar story for the Nuggets and he is taking the Nuggets to a whole new level.
The Spurs will be without Walker, Lyles and Bates-Diop against the Nuggets and Dejounte Murray is day-to-day with soreness in his right foot. Murray didn’t play against the Cavaliers and if he’s out again then Patty Mills, Tre Jones and Devin Vassell will see increased workloads, which is not ideal against a red-hot Nuggets team that is healthy and firing on all cylinders.
Dejounte Murray (plus-0.9 Defensive Box Plus/Minus) can take some offensive pressure off DeRozan and help contain Jamal Murray so monitor his status. As always, we suggest you wait as long as possible to find out who’s playing before placing your bets. The play I like is the Under, the Spurs lack depth right now and the Nuggets will be playing in the second game of a back-to-back.
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.