Nets To Cover Small Number In Home Matchup With Spurs

Monday, February 25, 2019 8:38 PM UTC

Monday, Feb. 25, 2019 8:38 PM UTC

San Antonio plays at Brooklyn tonight in a game where the visiting Spurs are lined as small dogs. Find out why we like the Nets to get the job done at home and cover the number.

San Antonio (33-28) at Brooklyn (31-30)

Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Free NBA Pick: Nets ATS
Best Line Offered: You Wager

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I am pleased to be working with SBR once again and looking forward to sharing a unique handicapping method focused on game intelligence derived from machine learning tools and situational query analyses. I have been working at this for the better part of 23 seasons and have had even greater success in recent years. My release went 14-5 against the spread (ATS) in the 2018-19 college football bowl games, hitting 60% ATS in NCAA men’s basketball spanning the last 142 releases, and hitting 59% ATS over the last 120 NBA releases.

I am on the Brooklyn Nets in this matchup tonight against the San Antonio Spurs. The Nets finally have a core group of players that have the talent and chemistry in place that will only improve over time. They are in solid position to earn a playoff berth after missing them for the last four seasons. The upcoming schedule is very friendly for them after tonight’s game with the Spurs with 7 straight home games facing opponents with losing records. They have gone 14-4 over their last 18 home games, which will bode well for that 7-game stretch after they win tonight.

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We’ll ask Kenny Atkinson about his rotational challenges tonight before the #Nets and #Spurs in BK. Our pregame coverage begins at 7:15 on ⁦@WFAN660⁩ 🔊click ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/q7qD8LX2py

— Nets Radio (@BKNetsRadio) February 25, 2019
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San Antonio has been playing on the road since February 4 in their annual rodeo tour. This will mark the 8th consecutive road game for them where they are just 1-6 (SU and ATS), losing by an average of 13.9 points and failing to cover the spread by an average of 10.5 points. The "over" ticket has gone a perfect 7-0 covering the total number by an average of 11.7 points. The Spurs are obviously road weary and not playing defense anywhere close to the levels of previous seasons under head coach Gregg Popovich.

Let’s take a look at a database situational query that supports the Nets in this matchup and has earned a 96-44 ATS mark for 69% winners over the past five seasons. The query instructs us to play on home favorites after a game where they covered the spread in a game involving two teams winning between 51% to 60% of their games on the season. This query has not had a losing season over the last five seasons, going 14-10 ATS for 58% in 2018, 44-15-2 ATS for 75% in 2017, 12-7 ATS for 63% in 2016, 24-16-1 ATS for 60% in 2015, and 7-3 ATS for 70% in 2014.

From the machine learning predictive side of this game, the Nets will score a minimum of 117 points on a minimum of 88 shot attempts and will make a minimum of 46% of those shots. When the Nets have met or exceeded these performance measures they have earned a 34-15 SU mark, winning the game by an average of 9.5 points and a 38-10-1 ATS mark for 79% covering the spread by an average of 9.8 points. Slicing this dataset query to return only those matching games since the start of the 2017 seasons returns an incredible 15-1 ATS mark for 94% and covering the spread by an average of 11 points.

So, in your NBA picks tonight, include Brooklyn ATS. Good luck and thanks for the following.

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