Spurs vs. Pelicans NBA Picks: Who Has The Edge In Crucial Play-In Matchup?

After opening the season 2-14, the New Orleans Pelicans played slightly better than .500 basketball the remainder of the year to earn an opportunity to extend their season in Wednesday’s Play-In Tournament. They’ll take on the San Antonio Spurs, whose legendary coach hopes to get the most out of a lackluster roster. Read on for our Spurs-Pelicans picks and predictions.

The NBA Play-In Tournament is here! The Brooklyn Nets and Minnesota Timberwolves earned their way into the NBA Playoffs with wins on Tuesday in the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchups in their respective conferences. Wednesday is when things really get interesting, though, because the loser goes home in the No. 9 vs. No. 10 games.

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday’s NBA Play-In Tournament matchup between the Spurs and Pelicans (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Spurs vs. Pelicans Game Info

Date: Wednesday, April 13, 9:30 p.m. ETTV: ESPNLocation: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

Spurs vs. Pelicans Odds Analysis

The line hasn’t budged since opening at Pelicans -5.5, which feels a little strange considering the Spurs have won outright in three of their four meetings this season. That helps explain why 79% of tickets and 59% of the cash are currently riding with San Antonio and the points. The Spurs are 43-37-2 against the spread on the season. The Pelicans come in with an ATS record of 41-40-1.

The total has absolutely plummeted from its opening mark of 232. At DraftKings, the total is down all the way to 224. Sharp bets have hammered the Under, with 74% of the total money being placed on that side of the action despite only 32% of the tickets going Under. San Antonio games have split the total down the middle this season, going 40-40-2. New Orleans, meanwhile, has gone Under more often than every NBA team besides Dallas, with a record of 34-48 on Overs this season.

Spurs vs. Pelicans Picks

Spurs +5.5 (-110) ????Over 224 (-110) ????CJ McCollum Over 5.5 assists (+120) ???

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Spurs vs. Pelicans Predictions

Spurs +5.5 (-110)

New Orleans was humiliated recently by two playoff teams. The Pelicans haven’t matched up particularly well with the Spurs this season, losing three of the four games, including the most recent matchup on March 26. Though the Spurs are limping in following three straight losses, San Antonio played those quality opponents respectably. This is a handicap that feels closer to a pick’em than a 5.5-point spread that would favor either side.

Though New Orleans will likely show out to support its team and provide an exciting environment on Wednesday night, the Pelicans shouldn't be better than the Spurs by this margin. It'll be a close game that allows the Spurs to stay within the number here.

Over 224 (-110)

The degree to which this total has dropped since its opening position of 232 is startling. Obviously, we would have been much more interested in considering the Under eight points ago, but with where the line is now, the value is on the Over.

The Spurs have a sneaky good scoring offense that ranks eighth in the NBA in points per game this season at 113.2. The Pelicans lag behind offensively at 20th in the league in scoring, but they've shown with more frequency the ability to pop a big number in the second half of the season. San Antonio has disappointed defensively this season, allowing nearly as many points per game as it scores at 113, which is 23rd in the league. That’s an advantage to New Orleans that could force the scoring into the high 110s or beyond for both sides.

With the sharp decline to the number, the Over is a four-star selection for Wednesday night.

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McCollum Over 5.5 assists (+120)

McCollum showing out for a grand performance is the only way the Pelicans can perform up to expectations Wednesday night. Gregg Popovich likely recognizes the 30-year-old guard’s ability to take over a game with his scoring prowess, so it’s going to be up to McCollum to shine in a variety of areas to refute what will likely be a game plan designed around limiting him.

The guard's best games since the trade that brought him to New Orleans have come with him both pouring on the points and setting up his teammates to get theirs. In what I'm predicting to be a higher-scoring affair, New Orleans should score through McCollum facilitating.

He’s cleared this mark in 12 of his 26 games since joining the Pelicans, and has been right on the border with exactly five assists in another five games. McCollum ranks 29th in the NBA in assists per game this season, making his plus-money odds on Wednesday’s assists total stand out among the player props for the slate.

Where to Bet on Spurs-Pelicans Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Spurs-Pelicans picks made 4/13/2022 at 1:08 p.m. ET.