Spurs vs. Pelicans Odds, Picks, Predictions: Who Steps up for Shorthanded New Orleans?

Which bet offers the best value when the San Antonio Spurs travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans? Find out with our Spurs-Pelicans pick based on the top odds.

The Spurs (10-20) are rebuilding and recently suffered a 1-16 skid, but they've scored in bulk on their way to winning four of their last six games. Starting forward Keldon Johnson is doubtful to play on Thursday for San Antonio.

Meanwhile, the New Orleans Pelicans (18-12) are legitimate Western Conference contenders but are on a four-game losing skid. They’ll get a chance to rectify that after having multiple days of rest for the first time in two weeks. However, they'll be without superstars Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, and Larry Nance Jr. is questionable for this contest.

These two teams are set to face each other for the third time in the last month, with the Pelicans beginning the season series up 2-0.

Here is our best Spurs vs. Pelicans NBA pick (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Spurs vs. Pelicans Game Info

Date: Thursday, Dec. 22, 8 p.m. ET
TV: NBA League Pass
Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

Spurs vs. Pelicans Odds

Spurs vs. Pelicans Odds Analysis

Despite being without multiple starters, the Pelicans are listed as 8-point favorites at home, and 70% of the public against the spread action has come in on New Orleans to cover. On the season, the Pelicans are average ATS, sitting at 15-15 overall and 6-6 as home favorites. The Spurs are 13-17-0 ATS overall and 6-7-0 as a road underdog.

Meanwhile, the total on this game, once at 230.5, has moved down thanks to news about missing stars. With 64% of the public action on the Over, this line is sitting steady at 227.5. The Pelicans have played two games this season when missing both Ingram and Williamson, and they have surpassed 110 points scored and 110 points allowed in both contests.

Spurs vs. Pelicans Pick

Trey Murphy III Over 14.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Spurs own one of the NBA’s worst “at-the-rim” defenses, allowing the most restricted area field goals made per game. They have also been terrible at stopping above-the-break threes, allowing the sixth-most above-the-break 3-pointers made per game on the highest shooting percentage from that area (38.9%). This is the bread and butter of 2021 first-round pick Trey Murphy III.

On the season, Murphy has attempted 49% of his field goals from either the restricted area or as an above-the-break three. He is shooting 69.2% and 40.3% from those areas, respectively.

We don’t have much of a sample size this season of the Spurs playing without Keldon Johnson, but it can only hurt their versatility and ability to rotate and properly counter Murphy’s shooting.

Murphy started two games this season when the Pelicans were missing both Ingram and Williamson, and in those games, he scored 13 points and 22 points. If Nance also misses this contest, the Pelicans' depth will suffer even further, and Murphy should log over 30 minutes once again regardless of game script.

Spurs vs. Pelicans Best Odds

DraftKings (-110)

The best price for this prop is with DraftKings. If you are restricted to FanDuel, be sure to scroll down to the “15+ points” option instead of taking “over 14.5 points,” since you can get a better price on the same bet.

On FanDuel, you can also ladder Murphy by buying 15+ points, 20+ points, and 25+ points if you so choose. He has five 20-point games this season, including a 26-point performance.

Spurs-Pelicans picks made 12/22/2022 at 9:13 a.m. ET.

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