Spurs, Clippers to go ‘under’ in Game 7 is the NBA Pick

LT Profits Sports Group

Saturday, May 2, 2015 2:35 PM GMT

Saturday, May. 2, 2015 2:35 PM GMT

Each day the LT Profits Sports Group seeks out a total that simply does not add up and therefore offers the most value that day. Here is their Total Value Play of the Day for Saturday.

 



In a series where the ‘under’ would be 4-2 if not for overtime, look for another ‘under’ Saturday night in the series-deciding game when the sixth seeded San Antonio Spurs (58-30, 24-20 away) visit the third seeded Los Angeles Clippers (59-29, 31-13 home) for Game 7 of their first round NBA Playoff series from the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 8:05 ET in a game televised nationally on TNT.

The posted total at Pinnacle Sports is 204 for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -109.


Revisiting Elimination Game ‘under’ Trends
Before proceeded with our analysis for this specific game, let us revisit the thread at Sportsbook Review Forum where the poster goldengreek supplied ‘under’ records for all elimination games since 2004. As you can see, the ‘under’ was 120-79-3 in all possible elimination games prior to these playoffs and 70-36-2 in all potential elimination Game 6s and Game 7s.

Well, with the ‘under’ now being the 8-3 in all elimination games this season including being the winning NBA pick in all three Game 6s, those records can be updated to 128-82-3 and 73-36-2 (67.0 percent) respectively! This is the only Game 7 of the first round, and make sure to keep an eye on this angle in future rounds as the ‘under’ is 38-16-1, 70.4 percent in all elimination Game 6s and Game 7s from the second round onward the past 11 years.


Underrated San Antonio Defense
Before this series began, one big edge that the Spurs had was on defense as that underrated unit ranked third in the NBA during the regular season in points against at only 97.0 per game. Unfortunately the only dominant effort by that defense so far came on Game 3 in San Antonio, where the Spurs won in a rout 100-73 while holding the Clippers to 34.1 percent shooting.

Still, keep in mind that Los Angeles was second in the NBA in scoring during the season with 106.7 points per game, second in field goal percentage at 47.3 percent and third in three-point shooting, so the Spurs have actually done a good job of keeping the Clippers either at or below their average in every game except the Clips’ 114-105 upset win in San Antonio in Game 4 where they shot an unbelievable 53.6 percent.

That shooting has stabilized to 47.5 percent and 46.5 percent the last two games however, but the Spurs surprisingly did not shoot the ball well with a chance to end this series at home, shooting just 43.4 percent in the 102-96 loss in Game 6 Thursday that went safely ‘under’, ending a streak of seven straight wins by the Spurs in possible home close-out games.


Making Stops When They Had To
Now, the Clippers were not great defensively during the season, ranking 16th in points against at 100.1 per game and 11th in field goal percentage allowed, but they have made stops when they had to with their season on the line in this series. In fact, the Spurs would have had much less than 96 points on Thursday if Marco Belinelli and Boris Diaw did not combine for 40 points off the bench, which is certainly beyond the norm.

The rest of the San Antonio team including all of the starters combined for only 56 points on 24-for-59, 40.7 percent shooting overall including just 4-for-13, 30.8 percent from beyond the three-point arc. So where did this Clipper defense come from? Well, it was not totally unexpected as Los Angeles did show improvement on the defensive end during its regular season ending 14-1 run, allowing 100 points or less in nine of those 14 wins and less than 90 points three times.


Clippers Trending ‘under’ at Home
And mainly due to that improvement on defense, the Clippers are on a nice ‘under’ run at home right now that stands at 10-4 in the last 14 games at the Staples Center combining the regular season and playoffs, a record that would stand at 11-3 if not for overtime in Game 2 of this series! In fact, the ‘under’ would be 4-2 in this series if not for that overtime, as that game stood at just 188 total points after regulation time before the extra period pushed it ‘over’ 206½.

Thus, look for yet another elimination game ’under’ when San Antonio visits the Los Angeles Clippers for Game 7 at the Staples Center Saturday night on TNT.

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NBA Pick: Spurs, Clippers ‘under’ 204 (-109)

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