Teddy & Pauly go over the latest NBA and MLB news now that the Cavs vs. Hawks series is over and the Astros struggle to pull through with Jake Peavy.
There’s a real celebratory tone on today’s SportsBIT, with ‘virgin’ college football lines for Pauly and Teddy to discuss in their ‘Deep Dive’. 5Dimes came out with the world openers for marquee Week 1 matchups in college football yesterday, starting with the opener in Sydney, Australia on August 27th, with Cal a 21.5 point favorite over Hawaii.
Virgin numbers are always exciting to peruse, particularly when we’re talking about Week 1 in college football. This is the first chance that bettors have to gauge how the betting markets are going to price various teams. For example, Teddy was surprised by the Auburn – Clemson line, with Clemson favored by 9.5 points ; a number that at first glance looked a little bit high.
Pauly and Teddy go rapid-fire through the world openers, but most of the discussion is about the methodology of getting prep work done over the spring and summer. Teddy offers a detailed explanation of why, despite enormous interest in the opening lines, he’s not planning on making a single wager against these numbers. It starts with 5Dimes asking bettors to lay -120 on each side, instead of -110, pricing these openers like props, not side bets. With that level of juice, bettors need to see some real ATS bargains before locking their money up for the next four months; looking for pointspreads that simply aren’t going to exist when the markets begin to mature in August.
And when it comes to football prep, Teddy is a proponent of doing NFL work first. After the draft and the initial free agency signing period – where we are right now – NFL teams aren’t going to change all that much over the summer months. What you see now is what you’re going to get in August, so summertime work on personnel, coaching and schemes will all still be largely valid once the preseason rolls around and the betting markets start to heat up.
But in college football, the early prep work is fraught with difficulties. There are so many more jobs up for grabs in summer camps—not just starting QB jobs either. Key players will get suspended or flunk out. Unheralded transfers will light up camp. Much of what ‘cappers read during and immediately after spring practices becomes somewhat obsolete over the summer. That’s why Teddy tends to focus on NFL early, leaving the majority of his college football work for the first few weeks of August.
The single best thing about today’s SportsBIT is that you don’t have to look at Teddy and Pauly’s ugly mugs for an entire segment! When talking about college football teams over the summer, the appropriate photos are of cheerleaders, not players or coaches. Enjoy!