Solid Home Record Makes Thunder Our NBA Pick Against Pacers

Nikki Adams

Friday, February 19, 2016 1:53 PM GMT

Friday, Feb. 19, 2016 1:53 PM GMT

Indiana Packers collide with the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday night in a riveting top NBA clash. Find out where the value NBA picks are as we preview and analyse this matchup.

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NBA Pick: Thunder -8.5
Best Line Offered: at Bet365

 

Indiana Pacers (28-25)
Indiana Pacers are sat sixth in the Eastern Conference with a modest 28-25 mark, hanging on to a playoff spot by a thread as three teams are nipping at their heels – Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls and Detroit Pistons. As the season hurtles towards the finish line wins come at a high premium, they can’t afford too many missed steps. Unfortunately, recent form is a modest 5-5 in their last ten games, and they are coming off a loss – a run of form that doesn’t bode well ahead of a date with high-flying Oklahoma City Thunder.

Indeed, bookies aren’t putting much stock in the Indiana Pacers. Money line markets opened with the Pacers matched at whopping +365 NBA odds at 5Dimes and as high as +380 at Pinnacle. Spread betting markets opened at +9 across the board. It remains to be seen which way the public bets the line but early indications reveal 56% of spread tickets recorded are going towards the hosts.

The Pacers are 28-25-0 SU on the season, underscored by a 2.2-point winning margin. They are 11-16-0 SU on the road, and a dispiriting 3-12-0 SU as the away underdog with a 3.7-point losing margin.

They are 26-26-1 ATS with a plus 0.8-point differential versus the spread. On the road they are 13-14-0 ATS with a plus 1.1-point differential versus the spread. As away underdogs they are 7-8-0 ATS with a plus 1.2-point differential versus the spread.

The Pacers are coming off a massive 117-95 loss to Charlotte, all while trading as the 3.5-point home chalk. The loss snapped a wo-game winning streak at home. Most concerning, they’ve lost six of their last away games.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder (40-15)
The Oklahoma City Thunder are riding high in the Western Conference, sat in third place with a solid 40-15 mark, which includes a 25-5 mark at home and a 15-9 mark on the road. In their last ten games the y are a solid 8-2 SU, which includes a two-game winning streak. It’s no wonder bookies are cornering this game so convincingly in their camp.

Markets went to press with the Thunder priced at anywhere from -444 (Pinnacle) to -460 (at 5Dimes) in money line markets and as the -9-point home chalk almost unanimously across the board.

The Thunder are flush off a 122-106 win over Phoenix on the road and a 121-95 win over New Orleans , bouncing back from a 116-108 loss to Golden State on the away handily. Both wins included convincingly covering a 13-point and 12-point spread, respectively.

Overall, the Thunder are 40-15 SU with an 8.2-point winning margin but they are 22-32 ATS with a plus 0.2-point differentia versus the spread. At home they are 25-5-0 with a 10.3-point winning margin and 15-15-0 ATS with a plus 0.2-point differential versus the spread.

 

Betting Verdict
The money line market on this game is pretty straightforward: the Oklahoma City Thunder are the deserved favorites to win outright on the strength of their solid home record, but the high NBA odds promise little return for NBA bettors looking to bank on the hosts. Better value is to be had in spread betting markets where the game is trading on 9-points. It’s a lot of points to lay with the hosts seeing as they are merely 15-15-0 ATS on the season at home; however, the Pacers cut an even less attractive figure on the road where they struggle to win and offer only a 50% chance to cover on the road. Take the hosts on your NBA picks.

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