Snoozing In South Philly: Take ‘Under’ For Pacers-Sixers

Saturday, March 9, 2019 6:43 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 9, 2019 6:43 PM UTC

The Indiana Pacers visit the Philadelphia 76ers this Sunday afternoon, making the ‘under’ the right NBA pick for these defensively sound sleepyheads.

<p style="text-align:right;"><em>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 8: 19-16-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 24-10 Totals</em></p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Indiana (42-24 SU, 34-32 ATS) at Philadelphia (41-25 SU, 31-35 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC</strong></p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Free NBA Pick: <a href="">Under</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center;"><strong>Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=BetOnline" target="_blank">BetOnline</a></strong></p><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3570062, "sportsbooksIds":[1096,180,169,1275,999996], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>What’s this? Another Sunday afternoon basketball game? Don’t mind if we do. The ‘under’ is usually the right <a href="">NBA pick</a> for these matinee affairs, and this particular matchup between the Indiana Pacers and Philadelphia 76ers already looks like a low-scoring contest, even without the afternoon angle. Let’s dive right in and see what these Eastern contenders have to offer us.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Myles Standish Proud</strong></h2><p>You know what you’re going to get with the Pacers (37-29 Under): defense. They’re No. 2 on the efficiency charts at 103.5 points allowed per 100 possessions – and given how slowly their offense operates (100.4 possessions per game, No. 26 overall), you can see how Indiana has managed to beat market expectations for the ‘under.’<br /><br />It might help us if Domantas Sabonis (plus-2.0 OBPM, plus-2.2 DBPM) doesn’t play Sunday. He’s questionable after missing the past five games with a sore ankle; the ‘under’ went 3-2 in those games, with Myles Turner (minus-1.6 OBPM, plus-5.1 DBPM) and Kyle O’Quinn (minus-3.1 OBPM, plus-3.8 DBPM) doing the dirty work down low. Sabonis practiced on Saturday, but admitted his ankle wasn’t fully healed yet.</p><p> </p><h2><strong>Rust Never Sleeps</strong></h2><p>The Sixers (34-32 Under) are more of a mixed bag, just cracking the Top-10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. But they’ve strung together six straight ‘unders,’ all with Joel Embiid (plus-1.4 OBPM, plus-2.0 DBPM) sitting on the sidelines. Again, there’s a chance Embiid will play Sunday afternoon; he was held out of Friday’s 107-91 loss (Under 230.5) to the Houston Rockets, helping the Rockets <a href="">pay us out</a> as 7.5-point home faves. Embiid’s status for Sunday remains up in the air at press time.<br /><br />Same story for the <a href="">NBA odds</a>, naturally. Sabonis and Embiid just might be the best players on their respective teams, making it even more critical than usual to wait for the shoot-around and see if they’re likely to suit up. We’re still looking at the ‘under’ for this matchup, but if either (or especially both) of these big men plays, you might want to consider a smaller bet size.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;So why is Joel Embiid out so long ? Was the All Star Part if the problem? Sixers HC Brett Brown Tao dances through this one. ⁦&lt;a href=\"\"&gt;@SportsRadioWIP&lt;/a&gt;⁩ &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Howard Eskin (@howardeskin) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;March 4, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />Even if both Sabonis and Embiid are on the court, they could still help us get to the pay window. As you can see by their offense/defense Box Plus/Minus splits, both gentlemen have more of an individual impact at the defensive end. And especially with Embiid, “ring rust” could hamper his shot-making on Sunday. But the Sixers definitely look like a pedestrian team without The Process. Take the usual precautions <em>viz.</em> the lineups, get the best price you can when the odds come out, and may the sphere be with you.</p>
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