Snag Warriors -12 With An NBA Pick To Run All Over Suns Shaky Backcourt

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, December 16, 2015 11:48 AM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2015 11:48 AM UTC

The circus is back in town, boys and girls. Can the Warriors rain down 3’s upon these Suns again like they did in Phoenix in the first meeting? Let’s examine the NBA odds and come up with a pick.

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Free NBA Pick: Warriors -12
Best Odds Offered By BetVictor


Odds Overview
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry and the defending NBA champions Golden State Warriors (24-1 SU, 16-8-1 ATS) return home to the Bay Area to host Eric Bledsoe and the Phoenix Suns (11-15 SU, 12-14 ATS) on Wednesday night at ORACLE Arena in Oakland in the second meeting of the season between these two Pacific Division teams. Oddsmakers have opened the host Warriors solid 12½-point favorites (Pinnacle) here with the game’s Total set at 220 (SIA). The Money Line odds see Golden State priced at -1000 (PaddyPower) with the visiting Suns lined at +650 on the takeback. The Halftime/Fulltime odds for Golden State are -350 (BetVictor) with Phoenix/Phoenix priced at 11/1. The Golden State Warriors Team Total Points is 117½ (Over +110, Under -125, SkyBet) with the Phoenix Suns Team Total Points set at 104½ (Over -110, Under -120, SkyBet).


Phoenix Suns
The Suns (4-9 Road) and Head Coach Jeff Hornacek sit in 9th place overall in the Western Conference heading in here, and that’s probably the area this still growing Pacific Division team will hover around this NBA Regular Season, hoping to sneak into that No. 8 or maybe the No. 7 spot in the conference to get a little taste of the Postseason. And like last season, the Suns will probably be battling the same teams as last year just to try to get that 8-seed and the privilege of getting swept by these World Champion Warriors in Round 1 in late Spring. Leading the charge for Phoenix (250/1 to win NBA Championship, Bet365) are Guards Eric Bledsoe (22.3 ppg, 6.5 apg) and Brandon Knight (20.4 ppg, 5.4 apg, 4.3 rpg), and it’s lucky for the suns they have such a dynamic duo as their frontcourt and bench seems to be major liabilities still. In a Loss at Dallas on Monday night, Phoenix and Hornacek started Alex Len (1.0 bpg) at Center—with usual starter Tyson Chandler (8.2 rpg) hobbled with a Hamstring Injury and Out for this game according to Rotowire—and PJ Tucker and Jon Leuer at Forward. And although Phoenix played admirably, the lack of talented Depth was evident and 11-16 seems just about right for this team which could hit the skids at some point this season and may have a problem with Chandler, averaging just 4.9 ppg, at Center. And in the West, you need to depend on your Big, Big Men (the Centers) and if you can’t, you’re cooked.


Golden State Warriors
The Warriors (10-0 at Home) come into this game off their first Loss of the season, a 108-96 setback against the Bucks in Milwaukee on Saturday night in the last game of a grueling 7-game Road trip where a physically worn-down Home Warriors team just couldn’t match energy and points with the hosts at BMO Harris Bradley Center in America’s Dairyland. So after making some NBA history and then falling short trying to become the first team to go 7-0 on a Road trip, Golden State (+187 to win NBA Championship, Ladbrokes) and fill-in Head Coach Luke Walton should be in the mood to spank somebody and Phoenix just doesn’t match up very well with these Warriors, who are actually deeper, better and more confident than last season when they brought the NBA title back to the Bay Area. And leading that charge and this Circus-like one this time around is Guard Steph Curry (32.3 ppg)—the sharpest-shooting player in the history of the league who has also had a deadly gunner as a sidekick in Klay Thompson, who few notice now because of Curry’s Globetrotter-esque style—and PF Draymond Green (8.7 rpg, 7.0 rpg), maybe the hardest working man in all of professional sports and the closest thing to Dennis Rodman to grace the NBA in decades. But the Warriors will be without starting SF Harrison Barnes (Ankle) who is also expected to miss Golden State’s rematch Friday here at Home with the Bucks before being re-evaluated this weekend. To cover ATS here, the Warriors will have to get much better production from Barnes’ fill-in’s Brandon Rush (2 points vs. Bucks) and Andre Iguodala (2 points vs. Bucks) and more scoring from starting C Andrew Bogut (2 points vs. Bucks).


Series Trends, Logical Reasoning & Pick
When these two met earlier this season in the Valley of the Sun, the Warriors completely shellacked Phoenix, 135-116 (GSW -8, 216½), as Meadowlark Curry had 41 points—in just 3 Quarters—and Golden State hit a season-high point mark and also set an NBA record, hitting 15 3’s in the 1st Half and 22 overall in the game on 38 attempts. If you see Rim, please pop it, bruh. Trend-wise, the Suns are 4-10 ATS in their L14 overall while the Warriors are 9-3-1 ATS in their L13 overall, so, Golden State isn’t only winning and making history they’ve been covering ATS also along the way (16-8-1 ATS, 66.7%). In this series, the Warriors are 8-3 ATS the L11 and are certainly worth a look in the 1st Half market also when that number is posted. They should be up the amount of the game spread at that time.
As far as the Total and Trends, both teams are slight Over teams this year—Phoenix 13-12-1 and Golden State 15-10—and although the Over is 8-1 ATS in the L9 Warriors games overall, the Under is 14-5-2 in Golden State’s L21 games here at Home at ORACLE Arena. This should be like the first meeting in Arizona, a track meet with the Suns guards unable to stop Curry and Thompson from popping 3’s at will. Golden State will be glad to be home and should average over 30 ppq here in rolling to a 17 to 25-point Win, but if you have a 12½, best buy that half-point as the end of NBA games are usually devoid of any caring Defense and have killed more bets that those Bug Zapper have killed Mosquitoes. Curry could get 50+ here.

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