Small NBA Home Underdogs Proving To Be Good Picks This Season

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, December 6, 2018 6:06 PM UTC

Thursday, Dec. 6, 2018 6:06 PM UTC

Usually in sports handicapping, betting on home underdogs can be a good way to make money. However, in the NBA this season it has been a GREAT way to make some profits, depending on the spots.

Home Dogs ATS

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Only Basic Stat through 198 NBA games with a profit...
Taking the Home Underdog:
37-26-3 (58.73%)
11.57% ROI#SportsPicks #Betting #NBA #BettingTips #ExpertTips

— Glenny (@GlennyGoodBeat) November 13, 2018
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Since that tweet was put out a few weeks ago, little has changed in the landscape of betting on NBA home underdogs. The sportsbooks know that when bad teams are at home, or when a powerhouse team goes on the road, the public and casual NBA bettors flock to the favorites like sheep.

Usually those road favorites get a few extra points on their spread and it has led to home underdogs cashing the spread at 72-57 (55.81%) heading into games on Friday, December 7.

That may be a small profit margin, but it’s important to note that not all home dogs are created equally. A +10 home underdog and a +2 home dog are very different things, and that has shown over the course of the first 25-ish games of the season. Home underdogs of +5 or lower are 44-37 (54.3%), which is barely making a profit. However, home underdogs of +5.5 or higher have covered the spread at 28-20 (58.3%).

You can conclude a few things from this, but the biggest is to stay speculative. While the results this season have been impressive ATS, the sportsbooks know this. With teams starting to think about tanking within the next four to six weeks as we approach the halfway point, this trend could easily start to change. However, while big home dogs have been better ATS, it is quite the opposite when it comes to betting them on the moneyline.

Home Dogs Moneyline

When it comes to betting big underdogs, there is an art form to it in the NBA. Betting big dogs in other sports such as baseball is very calculated and a lot of luck. Football underdog betting brings in things such as weather and injuries -- and even more factors are involved in college football wagering.

The NBA, however, is one of the more predictive sports. The rate that big favorites lose outright is very small. Through the first 25 games or so for each team, favorites are winning at a rate of 2/1 SU, while home favorites are winning at more than 70% SU.

You can see this through home underdogs that are higher than a +200 moneyline, too. So far in 2018-19, big underdogs with a moneyline of +201 or higher are only 6-30 SU. You’d be down -18.9 units or -$1,890 on $100 bets on each of their moneylines. So far, the biggest moneyline to win SU in the NBA this season is just +350.

However, when it comes to betting home dogs that have a +200 moneyline or lower, the results have been an ATM for bettors. Home dogs that come in less than 2/1 are 43-42 on the season. Of those 85 games, the average dog moneyline is around +145, and they range from even money to one +200 underdog that cashed. If you were to have bet every home dog +200 or less to start the season, you’d be up +20.39 units.

Now, before you go crazy, you should know that the hot start to this trend has been reversing course somewhat. Home dogs of +200 or lower are only 9-17 in their last 26, which has them down -4.05 units over the stretch.

That being said, since the calendar has turned to December, small home dogs have been profitable again on the moneyline, going 5-4 and profiting +2.9 units over the first week this month.

Conclusion

You can use this information to make better decisions on when to take a shot on a dog SU over the next few weeks of the season. Try betting big home underdogs ATS and small home underdogs on the moneyline over the next three or four weeks to see how it works out for you. As usual, we will check back in on some of our system plays as we go on this season, so until then, good luck on all your NBA picks!

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