Side With Motivated Mavericks -7 With Your NBA Picks vs. Kings

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, March 3, 2016 6:26 PM UTC

Thursday, Mar. 3, 2016 6:26 PM UTC

The Sacramento Kings travel from Memphis, where they played last night (a 104-98 loss to Memphis), to face the Mavericks in this 8:35 ET tip. What's the best NBA pick in this contest?

Sacramento Kings vs. Dallas Mavericks 8:35 ET
The Sacramento Kings travel from Memphis, where they played last night (a 104-98 loss to Memphis), to face the Mavericks in this 8:35 ET tip.  These two have split the regular series with the Mavs winning (117-116) to avenge an earlier (112-98) loss.  Tonight, it is a story of two teams going opposite directions with the Mavs having 4 consecutive victories, while Sacramento enters with 4 consecutive losses.  We will follow that short-term momentum for a pointspread victory with Dallas tonight.

There is little question that the Sacramento Kings have offensive prowess.  They are averaging 107 PPG, trailing only Golden St. and OKC in offensive explosiveness.  Their big 3 of Cousins, who has averaged 33/13 vs. Dallas this year, Rudy Gay and Rondo are as powerful a set of offensive triplets as you will find in the league.  Each of those stars, however, are battling injury and are questionable to make post tonight.  While the offense continues to run smoothly, it is unable to outscore the worst defense in the league.  For the season, the Kings allow just shy of 110 PPG.  It has been worse recently, as the Kings have gone 4-12 SU, 3-13 ATS, while allowing 116 PPG.  That’s bad news against a Dallas team, who has found offensive consistency.

The Mavs were mired in an offensive funk, averaging just 92 PPG on 41% shooting in a 5-game slump.  HC Carlisle made a shrewd coaching move, when he chose to open the floor for the offense.  It has resulted in an 8-game run in which they have averaged 118 PPG (just beat Orlando Tuesday night 121-108), while shooting 48% from the floor.  There is solid historical precedence for their victory tonight, as they have beaten Sacramento 22 consecutive times on this floor.  In addition, the Mavs have turned around their recent pointspread fortunes on this court.  This season, Dallas is a solid 10-4 ATS as home favorite of 4 or more points. 


Final Analysis
The combination of a banged-up Kings team, who is defensively porous and is on a 4-game downer, when matched up with a surging Dallas team, who has ascended to 6th place in the Western Conference playoff queue, leaves us no alternative but to back a Dallas team to continue their home court dominance over Sacramento.

I invite you to put the NBA odds in your favor and join me in my NBA pick on Dallas Mavericks tonight.

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NBA Pick: Mavericks -7
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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