Sharp Picks Raptors & Heat to go 'Under'

Monday, March 31, 2014 3:41 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 31, 2014 3:41 PM UTC

Miami can still reach the #1 seed in the East if they power their way through the last few weeks of the regular season, but the Raptors are a tough matchup, and the NBA Odds are close due to all of the Miami injuries.

<p style="text-align:center"> <style type="text/css"><!-- td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;} --></style> <span style="font-size:13px;font-family:arial,sans,sans-serif;font-weight:bold;color:#000000;text-align:left"></span></p> <p><b>Wade doubtful, other guards questionable<br /></b><span style="font-size:1em">Much like the last few games for the Heat, <a target="_blank" title="Dwyane Wade out once again" href="">Dwyane Wade is looking doubtful</a> for this one, while Mario Chalmers looks like a game time decision at best, and Ray Allen has already been ruled out. This is a big blow to the Miami backcourt, and if that’s the case, can we trust the Heat in the NBA Odds?</span></p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">[gameodds]5/260509/?r-1=43-19-349/us[/gameodds]<br /></span></p> <p>The sportsbooks have the Heat as -5 ½ favorites tonight against the Raptors, in what could become a second round playoff matchup in the East. However I’m not too intrigued by the Raptors here either. They are coming off of a game yesterday afternoon in Orlando, a game that was a lot closer than most suspected. However, the total of 194 ½ or even 195 ½ at some shops seems ripe for an under bet in this late season playoff-tune up.</p> <p>Without most of their backcourt, the Heat are going to have to <a target="_blank" title="Give LeBron the MVP already...." href="">rely on Lebron James more to initiate the offense,</a> and while they are good in those situations, they are better when they can reserve them for the end of the game, and not the entire game. Being without Allen and potentially without Chalmers really hurts the Heat’s outside shooting as well, as those two take the most, and second most threes of any Heat player.</p> <p>One of the main reasons why the Raptors have gone 9-6 ATS this season playing on no rest is that the books have undervalued them. However tonight it is their total that is overvalued, and not the spread. </p> <p style="text-align:center"><em>Let our <a target="_blank" title="Monday's Top NBA Betting Plays" href="/nba-basketball/free-picks/monday-s-top-value-nba-picks-a-38544/">NBA Picks of the Day</a> help you unlock the best value on tonight's card.</em></p> <p><b>The Sharp Pick<br /></b><span style="font-size:1em">Even though the Raptors are 10-5 cashing the over on the second night of a back to back, I think the under is actually the play here. Their game yesterday was in Orlando, which is only a short flight from Miami. Plus the game was in the afternoon, giving them at least another eight hours of rest and recovery time, which is basically another half day for these guys. When trying to defend the Heat, it’s a big help.</span><span style="font-size:1em"> </span></p> <p>Also, Miami has been an under cashing machine recently. The Heat have cashed the under in five of their last six games overall, as well as four of their last six home games. The under is now 12-8 in Miami’s last 20 games. </p> <p><span style="font-size:1em">Two in a row, and two of the <a target="_blank" title="Heat &amp; Raptors Head to Head Stats" href="/nba-basketball/matchups/20140331-736/">last three matchups between these two have gone under</a>, and all three happened this season. This is the fourth and final meet up, unless of course they meet in the 2</span><sup>nd</sup><span style="font-size:1em"> round of the playoffs. That’s why I see this as a tune-up game for the Raptors. They will try and treat this game as a playoff game, because it’s likely they meet up if Miami stays at #2 and the Raptors stick at #3.</span><span style="font-size:1em"> </span></p> <p>The Raptors have cashed the under at 26-18 this season when playing within the Eastern Conference, and I see that trend continuing tonight against Miami. </p> <p><b style="font-size:1em">My Pick: </b><span style="font-size:1em">UNDER 194 ½</span></p>
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