Sharp Picks Nets +7 vs. Heat

Jordan Sharp

Tuesday, April 8, 2014 3:38 PM GMT

Tonight’s marquee matchup could be a potential second round playoff matchup also, as the Miami Heat play host to the Nets. The NBA Odds are somewhat surprising considering Miami has yet to best Brooklyn this season.

4th time the charm

So far the Heat and Nets have met three times this year, and in all three of them, the Nets have won and covered. Even though it’s just the regular season, another win here by the Nets could make a potential 2nd round playoff matchup very intriguing if that indeed happens.

Tonight the NBA Odds are very interesting, as the Heat are -7 favorites, with a total of 190 ½. Both of these teams could still slip in the standings, so both will be looking for a win here to close out their season.

One thing standing in the way of that for Miami is Dwyane Wade’s bulky knees/hamstring. Wade has missed several games for the Heat over the months of March and April, and tonight he is once again a game time decision. Even if he plays, the Nets could very well keep this game within reach of an upset SU, and if he doesn’t play, then we may have one of the best value plays of the night on the Nets +7.

Brooklyn has been very good in the last five or six years when they head into Miami, and this version of the Nets are seemingly no different. Brooklyn/New Jersey are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 trips down to south beach.

Tuesday's NBA Betting Card

The Sharp Pick
Even though the Heat have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA in recent weeks, they are still vulnerable against the Nets tonight. Brooklyn hasn’t played much defense over their last ten games, giving up 103 points per game. However against the Heat, Brooklyn will have to bring their defense, and the return of Kevin Garnett to the lineup helps that a lot.

Garnett will be able to hold down Chris Bosh here, and even though his magic of defending Lebron James is fading, Paul Pierce can still probably muster up enough to make Lebron a little less effective. 

With the way the Heat have been playing SU recently that might not be too hard. Even though Miami has covered five of their last six games, I think they are very overvalued against the Nets at +7.

Brooklyn is 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games, and they have been one of the best bets of any NBA team over the last six weeks. Even if Wade suits up tonight after missing six games in a row, and eight of the Heat’s last nine games.

The key to this game will probably be Garnett and how good the Nets can play defense. Garnett has been the forgotten man in Brooklyn because of his multiple games missed. If he can protect the paint and defend Bosh well tonight, if Wade misses, the Heat can’t cover -7 with only LBJ doing work.

I’m looking for another close game between these two, as two of the three were decided by one point. Seven points is too many, even for the Heat at home. 

My Pick: Nets +7

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