Shade Bucks +5 & 'Over' 200.5 With Your NBA Picks

Darin Zank

Tuesday, November 17, 2015 2:11 PM GMT

Washington may own the recent series with Milwaukee, but it also recently lost three straight games by double-digits. Can the Wizards cover a handful of points on the NBA odds against the Bucks?

Betting Odds
Most of Tuesday's NBA odds market opened Washington at -4, with a total of right around 201. Much of the market then bumped the Wizards to -4.5 in the early betting.

 

The Situation
Washington (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 108-99 victory over Orlando Saturday, covering as a five-point home favorite. The Wizards shot 47 percent from the floor on the night, hit 12 of 29 from beyond the arc, helped along by an unlikely five-for-eight performance from F Kris Humphries, and committed just 11 turnovers.

However, prior to that Washington had lost three straight games, by 24 points against Oklahoma City, by 15 at Atlanta and by 20 at Boston.

Milwaukee (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS), meanwhile, just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 108-105 double-overtime victory over Cleveland Saturday, taking that game outright as a five-point home dog. The Bucks led the Cavs by nine points through three quarters, allowed Cleveland to rally and force OT, but in the end got a couple of key 3-pointers from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greivis Vasquez in the second OT, and held on for the win.

On the night Milwaukee only shot 42 percent from the floor, but held the Cavs to 41 percent shooting and won the turnover battle 21-13.

Last Wednesday the Bucks lost at Denver 103-102 on a late Nuggets bucket on a put-back on an air-ball. Just before that Milwaukee played a poor second half and lost at home to Boston 99-83.

 

Recent History
This is the second meeting this season between these teams; Washington won at Milwaukee 19 days ago 118-113, covering as two-point favorites on the road.

The Bucks led that game by 10 points in the fourth quarter, but the Wizards rallied with some hot shooting. On the night Washington shot 52 percent from the floor, and hit 12 of 21 shots from 3-point land. Milwaukee shot 51 percent from the field, but hit only seven of 24 shots from long range.

Also, that game played OVER a total of 199.

Going back a little ways the Wizards have taken eight of the last 10 meetings with the Bucks, including two of three games last season.

Of the last four games between these two teams, three played OVER.

 

Bucks-Wizards Totals Trends
Milwaukee is 5-5 on the totals this season, as Bucks games have averaged 199 points. They would be 6-4 on the UNDERS, had Saturday's game not gone to overtime.

Washington is 6-1-1 on the OVERS, as Wizards games have averaged 212 points.

 

Injury Update
Washington G Bradley Beal has missed the last two games with a bad shoulder, and is very questionable for tonight. He scored 26 points in the victory over Milwaukee three weeks ago.

On the other side of this match-up Milwaukee F Jabari Parker is out with a sore foot.

 

Final Analysis
Our guess is Washington won't shoot the ball quite as well as it did the other night, and it's doubtful Kris Humphries will make five 3-pointers again, maybe for the rest of his career. Also, those three recent consecutive Wizards blowouts certainly grab our attention. We'll fade Washington tonight, and go with Milwaukee, plus the points. As far as the total goes these two teams are allowing a combined average of 210 points per game, so despite Beal's potential absence we're thinking OVER on our NBA picks tonight.

NBA Picks: Bucks +5 & OVER 200.5 at Heritage