Season's First-Half Trends on Totals: Pelicans Games Lean 'Over'

new orleans pelicans

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, February 21, 2018 4:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2018 4:27 PM UTC

There are only around 20 games left for most NBA teams when the season tips back off Thursday, and some total trends that we saw in the first half could continue into the stretch run.

Lottery-Bound Teams Cashing The 'Under'

There are eight teams that had 20 wins or fewer at the All Star Break, and all eight of them in one way or another will find their way into the lottery this offseason. We usually think about bad teams as sure-fire 'over' bets, but in the first half of the season those eight were a combined 246-209-7 (54.0%) cashing the 'under.' That number is a bit misleading, but against one another these eight teams are even better at cashing the 'under' as it's a combined 58-40-4 (58.8%).

That could very easily continue in the second half if these teams continue to struggle on offense. According to NBA stats, these eight teams rank 19th or worse in offensive rating, and the Grizzlies, Bulls, Suns, and Kings rank as the last four teams in that category at 102.7 points per 100 possessions or lower.

However, that may not happen in the first game back from the All Star Break. Action Network put together an article about bad teams playing one another in their first game back from the break, and they are 49-22-1 cashing the 'over.'

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All-Star Nightlife is undefeated. https://t.co/jQ7RYnwhNi pic.twitter.com/zcqrMlfxaV

— Hardwood Paroxysm (@HPbasketball) February 18, 2018
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New Orleans Pelicans: Over Cashing Machines

The Pelicans have been really fun to watch this season. The loss of DeMarcus Cousins hurts their playoff appeal a little bit, but they have been even more fun to watch this season when Anthony Davis gets dunks like this.

On top of that, the Pelicans have been machines at cashing the 'over' this season. They are 33-23 cashing the 'over' and in certain spots have been as close to locks in the first half as you can get. New Orleans is 5-0-1 cashing the 'over' as a home underdog and 19-7-1 on the 'over' at home overall. On top of that, the Pels have been very good at cashing the 'over' against the West at 20-13-1.

Playing On 2-3 Days Off

Now that the season is winding down and teams only have 20-something games left in the season, there are going to be fewer back-to-backs, and more teams playing on 2-3 days of rest.

In the first half of the season, the 'under' was a really nice play when teams had at least two days off. There are currently six teams that are 70 percent or better at cashing the 'under' when they had 2-3 days off, and half of the league has a cash rate of 60 percent or better when they have 2-3 days off. Teams will get more opportunity to play on extra rest in March and April before the playoffs, so expect this trend to continue.

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