Season's First-Half ATS Trends: East Teams Have Best Value

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, February 21, 2018 8:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2018 8:22 PM UTC

Only about 20 games remain for most NBA teams, and some against-the-spread betting trends we saw prior to the All-Star break could continue into the stretch run.

NBA: ATS TrendsEastern Conference Dominance

Of the eight teams that finished in the money ATS last season, only three were in the East. Philadelphia led all teams ATS in 2016-17, and this season they again are a phenomenal bet at 32-22-1 ATS. Boston and Brooklyn also have been strong ATS.

These three teams are a combined 100-69-4 ATS this season. They and another half-dozen Eastern Conference teams make up some really nice value ATS through the first 60 games.

Of the 11 teams in the green ATS, seven are in the East. However, when it comes to interconference matchups, the West is 169-166 ATS against the East.

That being said, the top three teams in non-conference games are all in the East. Atlanta, Philadelphia and Boston are a combined 45-20-3 ATS against the West this year.

Home-Court Advantage? No More

Last year there were a dozen teams that finished in the money ATS as a home team, and another nine teams were two or fewer games below .500 ATS at home.

This season, however, road teams have ruled the day ATS. Road teams went 441-397-24 (52.5 percent) ATS in the first half of the season. If you add certain other factors, some teams have struggled a lot ATS at home.

For instance, Western Conference playoff teams have been an excellent fade this season as home favorites. Excluding the Spurs and Nuggets, who were third and sixth in the All-Star break standings, the other six West playoff teams were a combined 61-88-7 (41.3 percent) ATS as home favorites.

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It’s not surprising when you think about how the sportsbooks take advantage of the public. Favorites are usually inflated at home, and considering those six teams are 121-53 SU when playing at home this season, don’t be surprised if you see more backdoor covers down the stretch.

Good Teams Don’t Benefit From Time Off

Of the 16 playoff teams at the All-Star break, nine are below .500 after receiving two to three days off between games. It also seems some of the best teams have been the worst at covering the spread with two to three days off.

According to Team Rankings, the Warriors, Cavaliers and Spurs are a combined 12-32-1 ATS after playing on two to three days off. The Spurs were 7-12 ATS last season playing on that much rest, but the Warriors and Cavaliers were around .500 last season.

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