Searching For Value On NBA Mid-Series Prices

DeMar DeRozan

Thursday, May 4, 2017 7:13 PM GMT

The second round of the playoffs is already underway, but you can still put those series prices in your NBA picks. Which of Friday’s participants has the betting value?

Will the Cleveland Cavaliers blow a 2-0 lead? Can the San Antonio Spurs recover from the loss of Tony Parker? This is the kind of stuff people bet on; NBA series prices are still available for the second round of the playoffs, so let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and get to know the real story behind the NBA odds at Bovada. At press time, they’ve got the Cavaliers at –2500 to beat the Toronto Raptors, and the Spurs at +105 to beat the Houston Rockets.
 

The French Disconnection

Let’s start, as we typically do, with some baseline expectations. FiveThirtyEight likes the Cavaliers to win their series 78 percent of the time, which works out to –354 using the almighty SBR Betting Odds Converter. Holy doodle. Yes, Cleveland won the first two games by double digits, and they were dominant at times, but –2500 is an absolutely ridiculous price to pay. How about the other side of the coin? The Raptors are pegged at +1200 to make the comeback, which is nearly four times the payout they “should” deliver.

Moving on to the Spurs, FiveThirtyEight projects them to beat the Rockets 46 percent of the time, or +117 for a fair series price. Their matchup is tied 1-1 heading back to Houston for Game 3, so the Rockets have home-court advantage at the moment, and Parker (–3.0 BPM) is out for the year with a ruptured left quad. Yikes.
 

Damn. Tony Parker got hurt. Time for Pop to create another impossibly effective player from nowhere in his lab

— Vann R. Newkirk II (@fivefifths) May 4, 2017


There isn’t much betting value on either side here. The Rockets are –125 to reach the Western Conference Finals, and Parker is at the tail end of his career – Patty Mills (+1.3 BPM) can take it from here. Let’s recommend the Raptors for your NBA picks instead. It’s a bit of a long shot, but it’s worth taking at these series prices.

Free NBA Pick: Raptors +1200
Best Line Offered: at Bovada