Scoring Bonanza In Lakers vs. Warriors: Take 'Over' As Your NBA Pick

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, January 14, 2016 4:52 PM GMT

Thursday, Jan. 14, 2016 4:52 PM GMT

In what will likely be a game that’s pretty much over by half time, the Lakers are heading into Oracle Arena tonight to play the Warriors. The NBA Odds have the Dubs as -17 favorites.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2883052, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]
NBA Pick: OVER 216
Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

 

Injury Question Marks
The Warriors played last night in Denver without Draymond Green for rest purposes, but hindsight is always 20/20, and after losing last night to the Nuggets, the Warriors head back home tonight to welcome in the Lakers. While Green will still be out tonight before the Dubs head to Detroit where Green went to school, the Dubs could also choose to sit out some more people here tonight. I doubt it’s Stephen Curry though. Curry has said he wants to play in every game this season, so as long as he isn’t hit with an injury that forces him to sit out, he likely won’t be rested.

Since Green is already out tonight the Dubs might not choose to rest anyone, but as I’ve mentioned before over the last few weeks, January is the toughest time to predict the NBA in the entire season in my opinion, and it’s because late scratches happen all the time. It happened last night when the Mavs decided to sit all five starters, and while I doubt that happens tonight in Golden State, it would not surprise me to see the Dubs sit out another guy or two after the tough game last night.

Speaking of guys who might sit out this game, if Kobe Bryant ends up not being able to play this evening, it might also lead the Warriors to sit out some guys. Bryant did travel with the team, which is a good sign, but he has traveled with the team before and not played, so the injury question marks for this one are beyond plentiful.

 

The Sharp Pick
The question marks tonight are leading me to lay off the spread entirely. At -17, it’s already going to be hard to predict how the Warriors respond off the loss last night, so the total of 216 points on the NBA Odds board, is looking like a much better wager.

This could be a very fast paced game regardless of who plays or who doesn’t play, and even with a large total, the Warriors will have very little trouble scoring the ball against the Lakers. Speaking of scoring, even though LA has been pretty bad in that department this season without Bryant, the Warriors’ defense recently has not been up to 100 percent. Golden State has allowed over 106 points per game in their last ten games, and if the Lakers can get even into the high 90s tonight, the over looks like the play.

The Warriors are averaging 120 points per game this season when playing teams in their division, and being at home tonight should only help that average. The Lakers have now cashed the over in five road games in a row this season, and the over is also 4-1 in Golden State’s last five games overall. On top of that, the over is 6-3 for the Dubs in their last nine home games. No matter who plays, the Warriors pathway to about 115 points should be pretty easy tonight. They are also 6-4 this season cashing the over on the second night of a back to back. Take the over and add it to your NBA Picks this evening.

comment here