Saturday's NBA Money Line Pick: Underdog Mavericks +175 Against Warriors

Charles Stark

Saturday, April 4, 2015 11:11 AM GMT

We are heading Dallas to see how the Mavericks can upset the Warriors in tonight’s Western Conference battle.  I am taking Dallas on the plus money line, read more here and add them to your NBA picks.

Four in a row?
Actually it would seven in a row if Golden State beats Dallas tonight if we go into last year. Parsons status is still uncertain but beating a good NBA team four times in a row in one season is not an easy task, even for the seemingly infallible Warriors. The NBA odds makers have or course come out with the Warriors as a solid -4.5 favorite, they are not done with the season and still looking to lock up home court advantage.  Again though, this reminds a bit of the Bucks versus the Bulls just the other night when Milwaukee had a nice win at home and avoided the season sweep.  Golden State is the best team in the NBA but I have a hard time thinking they can beat a Carlisle led, good Dallas team for the fourth time this year. On top of this the Warriors just escaped a home game with a win against a subpar Phoenix team and not surprisingly, and with some good reason, might come in with a bit of over confidence.

 

The right spot on a good team
Although Golden State is streaking, and are flat out awesome, I think they have caught some teams in the right spot recently.  While Dallas was battling in OKC and winning, then losing at home to a real hot Houston team, the Warriors had the slumping Bucks, a Clippers team that just got back from a pretty long road trip, and a mediocre Suns team in which they won at the buzzer.  During this recent stretch of games in which they played tougher competition Dallas is ranked 3rd in the NBA in field goal percentage at 50%, Golden State in that same time frame is ranked 8th at 47% from the field.  Dallas is also ranked higher in this time frame in shots attempted at 88.3 per game (the Warriors at 86.7), and field goals made at 44.3 to the Warriors 41 per game.  I understand this skewed a bit because of the high scoring affair at OKC for the Mavericks, but any time a team wins at OKC all stats count in my opinion (OKC is 27-10 and third in the league in defensive field goal percentage at home).  Although Golden State has owned Dallas this year the games have been tight at times with the Warriors going on a Warrior like run to put the game away, I think Dallas will be well prepared tonight.

 

Get ready to run
I am ready for these two teams to get out and most likely put on an offensive show.  Recently neither team has been stellar defensively.  In the last three games the Warriors are allowing 43% from the field which is a bit above their average, helping them in this aspect is that they held the offensively inept Bucks to 37% in their matchup.  In that same time span Dallas is the worst team in the league in defensive scoring defense, but like the Bucks game with Golden State that can be attributed to the high scoring game they had with OKC.  Upon further digging Dallas is causing more turnovers than Golden State and they have a better defensive assist to turnover ration the past three games (1.5 to 1.7). 

With the way this game is set up I like the Mavericks to pull the upset here.  They are at home (last time they lost by 7 at home to Golden State, no Rondo and they shot horribly at 40% from the field and 20% from beyond the arc), Golden State is coming off an emotional win, and it is never easy to season sweep a Carlisle led team.  Look for Dallas to be really efficient on the offensive end and play solid on the defensive end to get the win, and add them to your NBA picks tonight.

NBA Pick:  Dallas plus money line  at BetOnline