San Antonio Spurs (3-3 SU & ATS) vs Denver Nuggets (3-3 SU & ATS)
Saturday, April 27, 2019, 10:00 PM EST
Free NBA Pick: Spurs + 6 (-105)
Recommended Sportsbook: Heritage
It only seems fitting that the most competitive and captivating of the first round series in the NBA playoffs goes the distance. Denver had the momentum going into game 6 and should have finished off San Antonio, but give the No.7 seed Spurs credit.
They did an outstanding job at home to stave off the Nuggets in a 120-103 victory and thoroughly deserved the win, all the while underscoring their favorable -3 odds against the spread at closing doors. They have the experience after all, with players like LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, and coach Gregg Popovich has been there and done that.
For NBA fans there is nothing more thrilling than a game 7 showdown, a series going down to the wire. This series has see-sawed with the intensity and force of a wrecking ball back and forth. Both teams have been up and down in this series, but, now, it’s all coming to a head. And it’s anybody’s game, which makes any bet a bit of a crapshoot.
If you’ve watched these games, it’s hard to make any NBA pick with confidence. Spurs live another day and winning game 6 gives them momentum going into game 7. However, they’re on the road and that presents a challenge. Indeed, bookmakers opened this game with the Spurs tipped at +5.5 points.
But since open doors, the public has bet up the game to +6 with the Nuggets garnering the bulk of the action (60% of consensus betting from across online sportsbook platforms has gone towards the hosts despite being routed in game 6)
Clearly, the public isn’t put off by Denver’s loss in game 6 – their worst defeat of the series in terms of margins (17 points), mind you.
Then again, it was a must-win game for the Spurs, and they did have home advantage on their side. Keep in mind the Spurs lost game 5 in Denver by 18 points – just as big of a margin of defeat as they dished out in game 6 to the Nuggets.
Indeed the last four games of this series have been routs decided by double-digits and the team that won SU has also covered the spread. One could argue there is a distinct trend in this series that is likely to spill over into game 7. Therefore, whichever way you slice this game — be it Nuggets or Spurs – backing your choice team both SU and against the spread would seem to be the smart NBA pick.
However, this is game 7. Everything is on the line. It’s down to playoff survival or dusting off the golf clubs and planning family summer vacations. Obviously, playoff glory is what these players live and play for. Call it a nagging feeling but this final game just might buck these recent trends. Just as delicately as this series is poised 3-3, the resulting scoreline could be just as tight, decided by less than a handful of points.