I can see why people would like the over when Houston visits Golden State. They are both really fun to watch on the offensive end. But I am taking the under today as my NBA pick and here's why...
The Line and The Score
NBA odds makers have come out with this line at 220. This makes sense because on the year these were two of the better scoring teams in the NBA. Golden State led the league at 109 points per game and Houston was ranked fourth at 105 per game. In the last three games they have played not much else has changed as far putting up points with these two teams averaged around 218 points combined in that time frame. On the year they met up three times and combined for scores across the spectrum from under 190 points to over 230 points per game.
Why the under?
Statistically speaking, while these two teams are two of the best scoring teams in the NBA they are also two of the best defensive teams. Golden State led the league in opponent shooting from the field and Houston was ranked a respectable 12th. Recently though, in the last three games, these teams have really been tough on that end with Golden State going down from allowing 43% from the floor on the year to 38% and Houston from 44.5% to just below 43%. I think both these teams understand the importance to win a championship you must play world class defense, in fact the mantra for the Rockets as they broke the huddle in game 7 against the Clippers was, “Defense.” On top of field goal percentage in the last three games Golden State and Houston are allowing just below 25% from beyond the arc which is more than 7% better for both teams than the on the season.
As these two teams start their quest for a championship, and with the first game going under the total, I still like for both of them to come out and set the tempo defensively. With that mindset this total should fall well under the number. Take the under with confidence as your NBA pick.
NBA Pick: Under at Bovada