Rockets vs. Warriors NBA Picks: Bet Houston To Cover Large Spread

Jake Walker

Tuesday, February 9, 2016 6:55 PM GMT

The Houston Rockets (27-26) travel to Oracle Arena to face the Golden State Warriors (46-4). The Warriors are a 14-point favorite on the NBA odds board and the total has been set at 229.5.

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NBA Pick: Rockets +15
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Houston Rockets
The Rockets have won three of their last four games but they lost 96-79 against the Trail Blazers last Saturday. Damian Lillard finished with 21 points and 10 assists as Portland built a big lead early and never looked back. James Harden led the way for the Rockets with 33 points.

Houston averages 104.9 points per game (5th in the NBA) on 44.3 percent shooting and 35.1 percent from beyond the arc and they allow 106.3 points per game (28th in the NBA) on 46.4 percent shooting. James Harden leads the Rockets with 27.8 points and 7.0 assists, Dwight Howard averages 14.2 points and 11.9r rebounds and Trevor Ariza adds 12.2 points per game.  

 

Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have won nine straight games, including huge victories against the Cavaliers, Bulls, Spurs and Thunder. Golden State is 23-0 at home and they have now won 41 straight at ORACLE Arena. Stephen Curry scored 26 points and played a key part in a strong closing stretch that sent the Warriors to a 116-108 home win over Thunder on Saturday.  

Golden State has the best offense in the NBA, averaging 115.4 points per game on 49.1 percent shooting (1st in the league) and 42.7 percent from three-point range (also, 1st in the NBA) and they allow 102.8 points per game on 43.0 percent shooting. Stephen Curry leads the Warriors with 29.8 points and 2.2 steals, Klay Thompson averages 21.4 points per game and Draymond Green adds 14.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 7.4 assists. 

 

Betting Trends
The Rockets are 14-10 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210, 7-4 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 and 7-5 ATS against Pacific Division opponents.         

The Warriors 12-10 ATS in home games, 3-3 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points and 12-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

 

Final Analysis
The Warriors are favored by 14 points on the NBA odds board and the total has been set at 229.5. The Warriors are evidently on a roll and playing at a whole different level than the rest of the league, so I like them to win this game; however, there's betting value on the Rockets getting 15 points. The Warriors are 2-0 in the season series, winning the first game 114-100 and the last meeting 114-110 on December 31 despite playing without an injured Curry. Klay Thompson scored 38 points in that contest. 

Look for James Harden to make a difference in this game, he is averaging 29.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 8.3 assists over his last 10 games and he averaged 23.0 points in the two meetings against the Warriors this season. The Warriors will win this game but James Harden will score enough points to help the Rockets cover. I'm taking the Rockets +15 as one of my NBA picks.