Rockets vs. Thunder - Free NBA Pick, December 25th

Jordan Sharp

Monday, December 25, 2017 2:34 PM UTC

Monday, Dec. 25, 2017 2:34 PM UTC

The Thunder defense has been pretty impressive this season, but there are a handful of teams that can score on anyone, and the Rockets are it. Even with some injuries and potential game time decisions, the total of 216 ½ is somewhat low for this big game.

Rockets vs. Thunder

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My Pick: OVER 216 ½Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

Even with Chris Paul out and Clint Capela looking like a game time decision, the Rockets are one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the NBA. Even at home on Christmas, the Thunder are going to have a hard time slowing down James Harden and the shooters from H-Town.

The sportsbooks have taken into account the lack of firepower for the Rockets in this line, but I don’t think they have taken into account the Thunder’s increased pace at home. OKC gets in 1 ½ to 2 more full possessions per game when playing at home, and against a Rockets team potentially without Clint Capela, that’s some nice potential for higher scoring from the Thunder.

Houston might not have the ceiling for scoring they usually do, but even banged up and against this Thunder defense, I can’t see Houston falling below 110 points.

Since November 1st, Houston has scored less than 112 points just once in eight road games. Houston has also scored less than 110 points just twice since then as well.

With Houston averaging nearly 115 points per game on the road this season, and the Thunder starting to put things together on that end of the floor, the chances of a shootout in this one are pretty good. I see a final score of about 111-108, so add the over to your NBA Picks.

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