Suns (19-61 SU, 36-44-0 ATS) vs Rockets (52-28 SU, 39-38-3 ATS)
Sunday 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Free NBA Pick: Rockets ATS
Recommended Sportsbook: Bookmaker
Houston Open as Massive Favourites
The Rockets open as the whopping -18.5 favourites across sports betting platforms, marking one of the most lopsided markets for Sunday’s NBA betting menu. If you’re thinking the massive spread is off-putting, you’ll be wrong. Early consensus betting has all and sundry betting the Rockets to cover the hefty spread and if this trend continues it won’t be long before sportsbooks adjust the line.
It’s not hard to see why early bettors are pounding the Rockets. James Harden and company are on a right tear winning five in a row to improve to 8-2 SU in their last ten. As it stands, they own the best run of form in the league right now – one win better than the Golden State Warriors, who are riding a four-game winning streak.
The Rockets remain one win behind the Denver Nuggets (53-26 SU) and three wins behind the Golden State Warriors (55-24 SU). The Nuggets and Warriors have three games left on the season while the Rockets have just two – hence they’re hoping to keep up the momentum, if only to close the gap on the Nuggets potentially.
In any event, the Rockets are massive favourites for good reason. Now, the stats show home form includes a 30-10 SU mark and a 22-16-2 ATS mark with an average of 6.4 winning margin. As home favourites, the Rockets sit with 19-15-2 ATS mark and a 6.8 winning margin on average.
Suppose the hapless Phoenix Suns play a part in the early market trends. The Suns prop up the Western Conference with a 19-61 SU mark that includes a woeful 7-32 SU mark on the road. Against the spread, the Suns are 36-44-0 ATS with a -9.0 losing margin on average, which puts them in the bottom five teams in the NBA in this category.
Surprisingly, the Suns strike a better pose against the spread when they are road dogs. They are 17-20-0 ATS with a 12.7 losing margin on average. Is this some sort of fight and grit on the road? Perhaps, there is something of that. Reckon it is rather a consequence of bookmakers overinflating the odds and undervaluing the Suns in the market.
On the surface, this does seem to be the case for this game. Overinflated NBA odds where one-side maybe bloated at the expense of the other. The fact that early NBA bettors are all over the Rockets despite laying so many points with them is down to recent form which has the Rockets blowing the competition. Over the last five games the Rockets have put up 616 points and conceded just 497 points. That is an average of 123.2 points to 99.4 points per game (616/5 = 123.2 and 497/5=99.4). Look at it this way, they’ve averaged a five-game winning streak with a 23.8 winning margin.
All in all, the Rockets do look like the smart bet. Do you want to bet against them?