Ride My See-Saw: Bet ‘Over’ For Spurs-Nuggets In Game 2

Monday, April 15, 2019 6:19 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 15, 2019 6:19 PM UTC

After missing a ton of 3-pointers in Game 1, the Denver Nuggets should make the ‘over’ beat the NBA odds for Tuesday’s Game 2 versus the San Antonio Spurs.

<p style="text-align:right"><em><strong>Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Apr. 15: </strong><br />25-29-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 34-21-1 Totals</em></p><p> </p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>San Antonio (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) at Denver (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball/san-antonio-spurs-vs-denver-nuggets-3773905/odds/" target="_blank" title="San Antonio vs Denver Odds Board"><strong>Tuesday, 9:00 p.m. ET, NBA-TV</strong></a></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Free NBA Pick: Over</strong></p><p style="text-align:center"><strong>Recommended Sportsbook: <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4418&amp;book=5dimes" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">5Dimes</a></strong></p><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3773905, "sportsbooksIds":[19,999996,238,180,92], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>Well, we did say that <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/nba-san-antonio-spurs-vs-denver-nuggets-series-price-odds-predictions-right-call-over-veterans/89681/">experience matters</a> once the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/3536912-nba-playoff-series-prices.html" target="_blank" title="On our Forum: NBA Playoffs Series Prices">playoffs roll around</a>. The San Antonio Spurs have all the experience in their first-round series with the Denver Nuggets, and they made it pay in Saturday’s opener, beating the Nuggets 101-96 as 5.5-point road dogs. But take a closer look: The Nuggets shot 6-of-28 from long range. The Spurs shot 7-of-15. That’s begging for some regression to the mean for Tuesday’s rematch.<br /><br />Naturally, the sharps have jumped on that carcass and picked off the best meat. Denver opened as a 6-point favorite on the <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/nba-basketball">NBA odds board</a> for Game 2, and they’ve already been bet up to –7 as we go to press. That’s still a bargain price according to the projections at FiveThirtyEight, which have the Nuggets pegged at –9.5. But we’re going in a different direction here at the home office: We’re taking the ‘over’ on the total of 208 points.</p><h2><strong>Triple Crown</strong></h2><p>We had some success during last year’s playoffs riding the infamous “see-saw” with teams who shot poorly from downtown in their previous game. These are high-variance shots, and while the Spurs did play well on defense in Game 1, Denver missed a ton of open looks. But we’re going to be focused more on the totals for this year’s postseason <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/nba/">NBA picks</a>, since that’s where the profit margins seem to be holding up for us.<br /><br />Getting the ‘over’ at 208 points is a godsend. The “official” total for Game 1 was 210.5 points, although many books closed at 211. Yes, Saturday’s opener slid below that total by a fair amount, but look at Denver’s 3-point percentage again. That wasn’t all San Antonio’s doing. Jamal Murray (plus-1.1 OBPM, minus-1.0 DBPM) usually hits 36.7 percent of his trey attempts; he went 0-for-6. Nikola Jokic (plus-5.7 OBPM, plus-3.8 DBPM) is a viable stretch-5 at 30.7 percent; he went 0-for-3. These things happen.<br /><br />[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "\n&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Crucial missed reads, airball threes. the jamal murray experience &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/Be0bE2xMju\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/Be0bE2xMju&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— Ben Pfeifer (@Ben_Pfeifer_) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/Ben_Pfeifer_/status/1117289596092465153?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;April 14, 2019&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]<br /><br />We also haven’t seen the same feeding frenzy on the total that we have on the spread. The consensus reports at press time show 60-percent of early bettors on Denver, while the total is split down the middle and holding firm at 208 – a handful of locations have it at 208.5. This could be a lovely spot to make the classic 2-team parlay with the ‘over’ and the favorite, and the Nuggets are still available at –6.5 as I write this, so feel free to expand your horizons and make both picks – as well as any halftime lines that look juicy to you.</p>
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