Rested Embiid Gives ‘Over’ Value For Celtics-Sixers

Wednesday, March 20, 2019 12:59 AM UTC

Wednesday, Mar. 20, 2019 12:59 AM UTC

Even though the Philadelphia 76ers played on Tuesday, the ‘over’ can beat the NBA odds for Wednesday’s game against the Boston Celtics.

Jason’s 2018-19 NBA picks record through Mar. 19:
20-17-1 ATS, 0-4 ML (minus-9.35 units), 29-14 Totals

Boston (43-28 SU, 34-36-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (46-25 SU, 34-37 ATS)

Wednesday, 7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN
Free NBA Pick: Over
Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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We’re about to boldly go where our NBA picks haven’t gone before. You may have noticed we’ve taken the ‘under’ quite a lot here at the home office, especially for games where at least one of the teams (preferably both) is playing on zero days of rest. But we’re going against the grain for Wednesday’s game between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. There’s a 226-point total on the NBA odds board at press time, and we’re jumping on the ‘over’ for a small wager. Come join us, won’t you?

Embiided Journalism

The Sixers have just beaten the Charlotte Hornets 118-114 (Over 223.5) as I write this, but there’s a catch: Joel Embiid (plus-1.5 OBPM, plus-2.2 DBPM) was given the day off for load management. He should be fine for Wednesday, and while Embiid is one of the better defensive players in the league, he’s also a scoring machine – one that the Celtics should have trouble containing.

That’s partly because their frontline will be compromised. Gordon Hayward (minus-0.1 OBPM, plus-0.5 DBPM) will miss Wednesday’s game with a concussion, putting more pressure on Marcus Morris (minus-0.1 OBPM, minus-1.1 DBPM) to soak up minutes at power forward. And the Celtics have already been a solid ‘over’ team this year at 39-32, including 4-1 in their past five games. That run could continue if Embiid cuts through the C’s like a hot knife through butter.

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Ben Simmons (28 PTS, 8 REB, 5 AST) and JJ Redick (27 PTS, 10 REB, 8 AST) ensured the @sixers left Charlotte with a W! 🔔#HereTheyCome pic.twitter.com/pzIgOZ5vNP

— NBA TV (@NBATV) 20 de março de 2019
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It’s Not Easy Betting Green

This is a somewhat tepid recommendation for the ‘over,’ though. The Celtics seem to have trouble scoring on the road, where they’ve split the total down the middle at 17-17 while going 14-19-1 ATS. If they were playing at the Garden instead, we’d be a lot more interested in betting on Boston with the Sixers coming in on zero days of rest.

On top of all that, Philly’s work against the total isn’t much to write home about. They have the ‘under’ at 36-34 on the season and 19-18 playing at home. And they leaned pretty heavily on their other four starters Tuesday night; we might see one or more of them struggle on Wednesday, or even given the day off. The Sixers have already clinched a playoff spot, they can afford to do this – hell, they can’t afford not to.

All of which makes this game anything but a 5-star deadbolt lock. As a rule, you should bet big with a big edge and small with a small edge; this is why we’re recommending only a small bet for Wednesday’s game. Shop smart, and may the sphere be with you.

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