Recent Trends Point At Pacers As The Sharp NBA Pick vs. Mavericks

Kevin Stott

Saturday, March 12, 2016 2:16 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 12, 2016 2:16 PM UTC

Let’s take a look at the L10 meetings in this series and offer up a NBA pick, a series in which the Pacers have unexplainably fared extremely well in, covering 3 straight ATS.

Indiana Pacers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Paul George and the Indiana Pacers (34-30 SU, 15-19 SU Away) head south to Dallas and the American Airlines Center to face Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks (33-22 SU, 19-15 SU Home) on Saturday afternoon in the second of two Regular Season meetings between these two teams. NBA odds makers have opened up Dirk Nowitzki and the host Mavericks as small 2-point favorites (BetOnline) in this one with the Total (Points) opening up at 205 (BetOnline).


Indiana Pacers 
The Indiana Pacers (32-31-1 ATS, 18-16-0 ATS Road) have W4 of its L5 ATS (W2 SU) and currently sit in 7th place in the NBA’s Eastern Conference, just 1½ games ahead of the 9th-place Chicago Bulls (32-31) and only 1 game ahead of the 8th-place Detroit Pistons (33-31) for that last Playoff berth in the conference. In its last game on Monday—meaning a nice long 4 Days of Rest heading into this affair in the Lone Star State—Indiana upset Kawhi Leonard the sitting San Antonio Spurs in Indianapolis, 99-91, (SA -6½, 195), not only a nice Win in the NBA Standings, but also a great Win for the evolving Pacers’ somewhat young heads as we head down the homestretch of the NBA Regular Season. Monta Hill (26 points), Paul George (23 points), Rodney Stuckey (12 points) and Ian Mahinmi (10 points) all helped lead the host Pacers to victory in the Hoosier State with Myles Turner and George Hill doing a good job in the Paint down low against the Spurs, snagging 10 rebounds apiece for the Pacers (100/1 to win NBA Championship, totesport). Indiana picked up speedy Free Agent PG Ty Lawson (Foot) this week and the North Carolina product and former Houston Rockets, Denver Nuggets PG will probably be seeing his first action here for his new team in this one in Dallas. In the Injury Department for Indiana, SF CJ Miles (Calf), PG Joseph Young (Knee) and PF Lavoy Allen (Knee) are all listed as Questionable for this game.


Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks (34-30-1 ATS, 20-14-0 ATS Home) and Head Coach Rick Carlisle have L4 straight ATS and 3 straight ATS here at Home and have sadly fallen back into 7th place in the Western Conference, just 1 game above the .500 mark and just ½ game ahead of the 8th-place Houston Rockets heading into Friday’s action, in which both teams have the night off. In their last game on Wednesday, the Mavericks (275/1 to win NBA Championship, Paddy Power) lost to the Detroit Pistons, 102-96 (DAL -2, 206½, Under) here at the American Airlines Center as the struggles for Dallas continued. In the Loss, future Hall of Famer F Dirk Nowitzki (25 points), Chandler Parsons (25 points), SG Wesley Matthews (10 points) and C Zaza Pachulia (10 points) led the way for the Mavericks (102.3 AF-102.7 AA) while PGF Deron Williams (1-6, 8 points) and reserve SG Raymond Felton (2-8, 5 points) continued to struggle from the Field for Dallas which went just 39-for-86 from the Field (45.3%) and 9-for-30 (30%) from 3-pointville against an extremely tough-defending Pistons side. Dallas is reporting no Injuries heading in here.


Recent Relevant (and Non-Relevant) Series Trends, Logical Reasoning and Pick
The Pacers have done extremely well in the L10 meetings in this series, going an impressive 7-3 SU (W4 in a row SU) and 8-2 ATS (W3 in a row ATS) with the Under ending up 6-4 ATS in those 10 contests. And in all but one of these L10 meetings, at least one team has topped the 100-point mark. When these two teams met in Indianapolis earlier this Regular Season (Dec. 16) the Pacers rolled to a 107-81 win (IND -4½, 207 ½, Under) as CJ Miles had 20 points and Rodney Stuckey 7 assists. Indiana (30-34-0 O/U) will come in very well-rested, with that 4 Days of Rest, but the Pacers (1-1 ATS on 3+ Days Rest) three players listed as Questionable compared to a healthy Dallas (33-32-1 O/U) is an advantage for the hosts although the Mavericks Confidence has to be waning now after doing this Dance up and down the 8th- through 6th-place spots in the Western Conference with the team slowly giving up just a little more points (on average) per game as the season plods forward.
Trend-wise, the Over is 10-3 in the Mavericks L13 games but just 1-3 ATS over the L4 and 7-3 ATS in the L10 Dallas games at Home.

The Pacers are an anemic 6-15-1 in their L22 games played on a Saturday but in this series—and a Trend with some muscle on the bone—Indiana and Myles Turner (10.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg) are 9-2 ATS the L11 meetings and have covered those aforementioned L3 straight. And with Dallas (L4 SU, L4 ATS) just 3-7 ATS this Regular Season playing on 2 Days Rest and in another one of its periodic funks, taking a small shot on SG Monta Ellis (14.0), PG George Hill (13.1 ppg) and the visiting Pacers and the couple of points against a down Dallas side seems like the safest route here for those interested in playing a Side in this game as Paul George and the Pacers have Won 3 of their L4 SU here in Dallas as must feel comfortable playing at this particular site as the numbers show. If preferred over taking a probably meaningless 2 points, Indiana on the Moneyline is worth consideration when that market opens up for your NBA picks.

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Final Score Prediction: Pacers 103  Mavericks 99
NBA Pick: Pacers PK
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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