Recent Trends Point To 'Over' As The NBA Pick In Celtics vs. Magic

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, January 31, 2016 3:58 PM GMT

Sunday, Jan. 31, 2016 3:58 PM GMT

Can the Celtics continue their solid play on the road in Orlando, or will the Magic trick their way into a cover? Don't miss our betting preview and the best NBA picks available!

***Sunday's NBA Prop Bets***

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Free NBA Pick: Over 204.5
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

 

Celtics’ Rebound
To start the season, it looked as if the Celtics were improving on their finish from last season, but after a while like most young teams, they hit a wall and fell back to earth briefly. However, recently they have started to turn things around, and while their offense has been a big story in how they have started winning again, their defense is still very good and mostly unnoticed by the casual sports fan or bettor.

The C’s have move up to 2nd in the NBA in Defensive Rating behind only the powerful Spurs, and with their offense rebounding, they are back close to top ten in Offensive Rating as well, ranking 12th currently at 105.6. This is impressive from a team that has very little to no star power, and coach Brad Stevens has continue to do a fantastic job in this most recent winning streak of five straight SU, and eight of their last ten games SU as well.

Tonight against the Magic, the Celtics will continue being a mismatch at times for Orlando, but the Magic and Scott Skiles are going to try and out defend this Celtics team, and whether or not it will work remains to be seen, but what should be a constant for this game is defense. Boston is 14-10 cashing the under on the road this season, and with the total creeping upward in some instances to 205 in the NBA odds boards, I think now is a perfect chance to strike at betting as this will be a higher scoring game.

 

The Sharp Pick
Games that start earlier tend to be lower scoring, and while that system has become harder to predict as we get into late January, and while the Magic have the ability to play good defense, they have not been doing so over the last few games.

Orlando has given up an average of 112 points per game over their last four games, and even though three of them were on the road, Orlando’s overall defense and home defense are virtually the same this season. On top of that, their most recent loss was to these Celtics, and now in the home-home game tonight, I see Orlando giving up a ton of points once again. Boston is averaging over 112 points per game in their last ten games, and it has done well for over bettors. The over has cashed in six of their last nine games overall, and it’s also been a great NBA pick when they head out on the road, where they have cashed the over in five of their last seven.

The Magic have not been immune to the over cashing either. It’s won in Orlando games in four games in a row, and with their defense collapsing as the season gets into the most tiresome month of the season, I see it doing so again on tonight's game. Depending on the number from the first game this season, the over has now cashed or pushed in both of their meetings this season.

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