We crushed the sportsbooks, and they better be thankful I didn’t add more points onto the Thunder’s alternative point spread last night. Let’s keep that momentum going with our NBA picks.
Cleveland Cavaliers O/U 104.5
The Cleveland Cavaliers have hit a slump on the road in the Eastern Conference Finals, but one constant they have had this season is being good at home. We tried to hit on their team total in Game 4, and the only reason we lost in Game 4 was their collapse in the final two minutes offensively. That will not happen here in Cleveland tonight, and after a short two-game hiccup, the Cavs are going to bounce back tonight.
So far this postseason at home, the Cavaliers are averaging more than 110 points per game at home in the postseason, and they are averaging 118.3 points per 100 possessions at home in the playoffs. While I doubt they play fast enough to get to 100 possessions, they won’t have to in order to cash the over with this prop.
They are averaging about 90 possessions per 48 minutes, so if they keep up their home court offense, they Cavs will likely have 106 to 107 points in this one. The Raptors offense has been better at home, but on the road Toronto’s defense and offense will likely suffer more. With that in mind, I see Cleveland cashing the over on this one, so add it to your NBA Picks here tonight.
NBA Pick: OVER 104.5 (-130)
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline
Kyrie Irving O/U 24 points
The Cavs usually go as Lebron James does, but with the way that Kevin Love has been playing in this series, Kyrie Irving has had to pick his game up substantially in the Eastern Conference Finals. His bad game in Game 3 was one of the reasons for Cleveland’s bad loss, but in every other game in this series, Irvin has had at least 26 points.
If you look back on just the games in this series, Irving has an Effective Field Goal Percentage of 60 percent. Irving has been hot all series, and going back home is only going to help that. Irving was nearly two points per game better at home this regular season than he was on the road, and with the Raptors diverting more attention to Lebron James, Irving has to make shots, especially from three.
The one thing Irving hasn’t done all series is shoot threes. His three-point shooting in the first four games of this series has been atrocious at 23.8 percent. Considering he is shooting so well close to the basket, it’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting shots from the outside. If that happens, Irving is going to have much more than 24 points.
There is also the factor that the Cavs have blown out almost every team they have faced at home this season. Their average margin of victory in their last five home games is more than 20 points. This game might not be a blowout, but even if it isn’t, Irving is going to play a large role in if the Cavs win this game. Irving should be a solid over play. If you're looking for a moneyline pick instead and aren't too sure about who's going to be the future Championship Winner, cash in on this conference final with our capper's Raptor pick on the game.
NBA Pick: OVER 24 (-115)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada