Cleveland cashing train
The Cavs’ season has been lost for a few weeks now, but that doesn’t mean they have been a good fade. In fact it’s been quite the opposite. The Cavs have been money in the NBA odds recently, and tonight they are +4 home underdogs to the Raptors, with a total of 196 points. On a short night like this, will Cleveland continue to be a solid bet ATS, or will the Raptors’ push for a good playoff seed derail Cleveland’s recent profit run?
The Cavs are 13-5 ATS this season as home underdogs, and after the run they have been on, you’d think they’d be another solid bet this evening. However the Raptors are also a traditionally undervalued team this season, and without the services if Kyrie Irving again tonight, I fear the Cavs’ run may be over, or at least put on hold against Toronto.
Irving’s absence is going to give Kyle Lowry free roam to do anything he wants on offense, because he won’t have to extend much energy keeping up with Jarrett Jack. That should lead to him and the rest of the Raptors putting on a good game.
The Cavs have been overvalued for some time now ever since Irving went down, and I think tonight the sportsbooks are finally correcting it. When it comes to placing our NBA picks, the Raptors are much better than a -4 favorite even on the road, and I think they can cover it with ease.
The Sharp Pick
The Raptors are 8-4 ATS this season when playing as road favorites, and this is another prefect example of how undervalued they have been in these situations. The Cavs without Irving are probably one of the five worst teams in the NBA, and even though the Raptors aren’t playing their best basketball, it won’t take much to best the Cavs by more than four points.
The Raptors are 5-1 SU against the Cavs in Cleveland in their last six trips there, and even though their ATS record in those games are even, this is a weak Cavs team. They have lost five straight home games SU, and even though they have been covering spreads recently, they have been double digits.
This season the Raptors have been one of the best teams in the NBA in conference games, and so far they are 25-15 ATS against the Eastern Conference. Even though the Cavs have covered six of their last seven games, I doubt they can overcome the Raptors without Irving. While they may have a nice counter to the Raptors paint presence, the Cavs are very light at guard right now. Without Irving, and potentially without CJ Miles again, they have little to try and slow down Lowry and DeMar DeRozan.
the Cavs will probably stay around for some of the game, I see the Raptors
running away with this one by the time crunch time in the fourth quarter.
Cleveland is not deep enough to stay with the Raptors for the entire game, and
I am laying the points with the road team.
My Pick: Raptors -4