We hit only one of our three prop NBA Picks yesterday, but once again only missed a winning night by a slim margin. I am back on the short-slated Tuesday evening with three more of my NBA props.
Playoff Record 3-6
Al Horford O/U 27 Points, Rebounds and Assists
I’m not sure why, but the sportsbooks apparently didn’t learn anything from Game 1 where Al Horford went for 24 points and 12 rebounds, while adding on two assists. For some odd reason, his points, rebounds and assists total actually dropped by one down to an even 27. It was 26.5 when it opened, and once again I am on the over here tonight in Game 2 against the Celtics.
Even though the Celtics are one of the more undervalued teams in the playoffs right now, they have been horrific trying to defend opposing big men, especially centers. The Celtics have literally no one above 6’9 on their roster outside of maybe Tyler Zeller, and there is very few scenarios other than a blowout that he sees the floor.
I expect Horford to once again dominate the Celtics tonight on the boards and on offense, and he might even tack on a few more assists as well. Horford is one of the better passing big men in the league, so if he isn’t scoring, he should be boarding and dishing enough to cash the over, so make that one of your NBA picks.
My Pick: Over 27 -150 at Bovada
Evan Turner O/U 23 ½ Points, Rebounds and Assists
In the same game, Evan Turner looks like he will be taking over for the injured Avery Bradley, and even though Marcus Smart will likely get a bump in minutes, it is Turner who will have to take on the scoring load that Bradley leaves behind. While Turner can’t shoot the outside shot at all, he will luckily have the benefit of going against Kyle Korver for most of the game, which is a big mismatch in Turner’s favor.
While he gets more scoring done off the bench, I expect Turner to finish the game in the fourth quarter, and 23 1/2 may be too little of a total for Turner’s output tonight. He played 34 minutes and scored 10 points on 4-13 from the floor in Game 1, and as long as he is getting to the basket, I expect him to get at least 13 tonight now that he has to take on a heavier load. Even with the off night on Sunday, he added eight rebounds and five assists.
The Pick: Over 23 ½ -125 at Heritage
Tim Duncan O/U 18 Points and Rebounds
What’s great about playoff Tim Duncan is he flashes back about 10 years. Gregg Popovich purposefully does not play him much in the regular season to unleash his refreshed veteran in the playoffs, and it happens every year. Coincidently, the sportsbooks undervalue his player props NBA odds every year to start the playoffs, so if this game actually stays close tonight, which I think it will be closer than Game 1, Duncan should see 30 minutes, and wil easily get above 18 points and rebounds.
The Grizzlies injuries have made them one of the worst teams at defending big men, and it showed against Duncan and LaMarcus Aldridge in Game 1. Duncan had seven points and 11 rebounds in just 22 minutes of action, so theoretically he should easily be able to cash the over with a full minutes load here tonight. I am rooting for the game to stay close so Duncan can see the fourth quarter, and cash the over.
The Pick: Over 18 -115 at Bookmaker