I am back on another hot streak. My props are 6-1-1 in my last eight playoff NBA Picks. I'm going to keep it going tonight, which is exactly what I plan to do with these player props.
DeMar DeRozan O/U 31 points, rebounds and assists
Talking on the NBA Odds Couple show this morning, I talked about how fading Kyle Lowry might be a solid plan tonight. I looked back on these teams’ games in the regular season, and while Lowry’s performances stuck out for how bad and lackluster some of them were, DeMar DeRozan’s stuck out, especially the last two games between the Heat and Raptors in Toronto.
In their final two meetings of the regular season, both in Toronto, DeRozan averaged 35.5 points, eight rebounds and 5.5 assists per game against the Heat, Granted, Dwyane Wade did not play in that game, but Wade is far from the defender he once was. After struggling with Paul George all throughout the first round, DeRozan has a much better matchup in this series, and I expect him to take advantage of it.
DeRozan’s game is predicated on getting to the line, and in his final two games against the Heat, he got to the free throw line 21 times, including 15 times in their last meeting of the regular season. In order to get Hassan Whiteside out of the game, the Raptors are going to go at him in the paint, and DeRozan is going to be the main predator in the paint. The Heat were very good in keeping teams off the line this season, but not the Raptors. Toronto had a free throw to field goal ratio of .371 in their last two home games against the Heat, and if DeRozan is getting to the line, he is going to cash the over on this NBA prop pick.
My Pick: OVER 31 (-115)
Draymond Green O/U 10 rebounds
After cashing one of the easier prop bets I’ve ever recommended on this site two nights ago with Draymond Green’s rebounding total, I am doubling down, baby! However, Bovada sportsbook has wised up a bit, and they have increased his rebounding total from 9.5 to 10, and they have juiced the over at -125. However, there is still value in this prop, especially after Green grabbed eight rebounds in the first half alone in Game 1 of this series, and so far after snagging 13 rebounds in route to a triple double in Game 1, Green has now snatched 48 rebounds in his four meetings with the Blazers this season.
I said it two nights ago and I’ll say it again. Green is no match for Al Farouq Aminu. Green is already an undersized power forward, but he can take advantage of other undersized fours, and Aminu is definitely that. If the Warriors force the Blazers to go small, that is only going to help Green and his rebounding total.
Advanced stats can really help handicap postseason NBA odds, especially prop odds. Green’s rebounding rate of 23.2 percent this postseason is great for a power forward, especially when his regular season rebounding rate was only 14.7 percent. Look for Green to grab another 10 or more boards in this one.
My Pick: OVER 10 (-125)