Another night, and another two winning tickets for our prop betting picks! After a slow start to the playoffs, I am on fire hitting 12-3-1 of my last 16 prop NBA picks. Take a look!
Goran Dragic O/U 16.5 points
Goran Dragic has stepped up in the second round, and with the Heat in need of extra offense, he has been more than happy to oblige. Dragic is averaging 23 points per game in the second round so far, but even more important, after averaging only 13.1 attempts per game in the first round, his shot attempts are up to 16 per game in the second round, and 16.3 attempts in his last three games.
If Dragic is shooting 16 times per game, I have no doubt he can get above 16 points in Game 3 of this series. Now that the series is shifting back to Miami, Dragic should get even better with the home cooking. While his 12 attempts in Game 2 are a little concerning, the Heat are going to need him to keep putting pressure on Kyle Lowry.
While Lowry’s struggles are far more than just Dragic’s defense, Dragic’s ability to make Lowry defend on the other end could also be one of the reasons he is struggling. Miami knows this, so they are going to continue to give Dragic extra shots. Dragic shot 49 percent at home during the regular season this year, so I expect him to take another 15 shots or more in this one, and to cash the over for our prop. Plus, bet365 is offering even money for the over, which is great value considering Dragic’s Usage Rate over the last three games.
Joe Johnson O/U 20.5 points, rebounds and assists
Line shopping is crucial for props, and today’s props are a great example. For our first prop, Dragic’s price for the over on points is -125, compared to +100 at bet365. The same is true for Joe Johnson’s points, rebounds and assists tonight, as they are 20.5 at Bovada, but 21.5 at bet365. We cashed the over with this same prop two nights ago, and now heading back to Miami, Johnson should once again play big minutes. However, the sportsbooks have not caught up yet, and even though he has played over 40 minutes in both of the games in this series, Bovada still has his total for points, rebounds and assists at 20.5
If Johnson gets another 40-minute game, he should easily cash the over once again. Johnson is averaging over 20 shot attempts per game this series, and if he keeps getting that insane usage, the books are giving away money with this prop. He has been pretty inefficient so far, but we all know he has the ability to get hot and cash the over with this one. He has six assists and 13 rebounds over his last two games as well, so as long as he is getting close to 20 shots with close to 10 total rebounds and assists, this prop is a no-brainer on the NBA odds as the Heat head back home.
My Free NBA Pick: OVER 20.5 (-125) at Bovada